The Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos are headed for a Super Bowl XXXII rematch and one of the NFL’s biggest games in Week 15 on Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High. The Packers have won four straight games, are 9-3-1 overall and currently sit in the No. 2 spot in the NFC. The Broncos have won an incredible 10 straight games, are 11-2 overall and currently hold the top seed in the AFC. Super Bowl preview? Maybe. Even in an uncommon matchup, both teams need a win to hold serve in the playoff race.
Can the Packers go on the road to Denver, where the Broncos are 6-0 this season, and beat one of the top contenders in the AFC to extend the win streak to five games?
Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ showdown with the Broncos in Week 15:
1. Sack differential
The line of scrimmage will be the focal point on Sunday in Denver. One specific thing to watch: Which team can win the sack battle? Both teams can both protect the quarterback and affect the quarterback. The Broncos are +38 in sacks this season — created 55, most in the NFL, and allowed only 17, tied for first. The Packers are +15 — 33 sacks on defense and only 18 allowed on offense. The Packers need a standout performance from the offensive line against a deep and disruptive defensive front, while Micah Parsons, Rashan Gary and the Packers front are in for a big test against PFF’s No. 1 rated pass-blocking offensive line. This is an opportunity for the Packers to prove they are postseason ready along the line of scrimmage. Watch early to see how the Packers are getting off the ball in the noise, especially against two edge rushers (Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper) who have explosive get-off.
2. Third down
Another focal point for Sunday: third down. Can the Packers defense get off the field on third down against a ball control offense? Jeff Hafley’s group can’t afford to allow the Broncos to chip away and dominate time of possession, especially in the altitude in Denver. But the more important battle is when the Packers have the ball and the NFL’s No. 1 third down offense faces the NFL’s No. 1 third down defense. The Broncos have the coveted blend of a front-four pass-rush and coverage on the backend, making it difficult to convert consistently on third down. Teams are converting only 30 percent of the time on third down against the Broncos this season. Don’t be surprised if Matt LaFleur aggressively goes for it on a few fourth downs on Sunday.
3. Revenge opportunity?
On May 15, 2023, the Broncos released running back Emanuel Wilson. On May 23, 2023, the Broncos released kicker Brandon McManus. They took different paths to get to Green Bay, but Wilson and McManus will both get a chance to sting their former team on Sunday. Wilson, who spent all of three days with Denver as a rookie, could be the lead back on Sunday with Josh Jacobs still dealing with swelling and stiffness in his knee. He rushed for 107 yards and two scores filling in for Jacobs back in Week 12. McManus, meanwhile, will handle all the kicking for the Packers in the altitude in Denver — a place where he kicked for nine years and will be very familiar. The veteran kicker has made all 14 of his kicks over the last three games.
4. Time to go big?
The Broncos defensive front is disruptive, but it isn’t a big front, and Sunday could be an opportunity for the Packers to use more jumbo packages and attack downhill in the run game, even against the NFL’s No. 1 defense in yards allowed per carry. With Aaron Banks, Sean Rhyan and Anthony Belton on the interior, and Darian Kinnard now the go-to sixth offensive lineman, the Packers have the beef to get movement in the run game. The key will be getting initial movement and then walling off the second level, where the Broncos have their best run defenders. Can the Packers turn this game around on the Broncos, control the action with the run and dominate the clock while wearing out Denver’s front? This might be the chance for Matt LaFleur to go heavy often and let the offensive line lean on a smaller defensive front. But it’ll be hard to take the game out of Jordan Love’s hands because he’s playing so well. Maybe the Packers show heavy and throw out of it consistently.
5. Love’s opportunity
Most sportsbooks have Love as a legitimate NFL MVP candidate with four games to go. You want an MVP opportunity? It doesn’t get much better than going on the road and playing a contender riding a 10-game win streak and featuring an elite defense in a mid-December game. It’s going to take something special for Love to actually win MVP, but playing well against a fearsome pass-rush and beating the Broncos in Denver would certainly help. Winning the game is far more important than Love’s MVP candidacy, but this is the type of matchup where you need a quarterback to elevate everyone around them and play their best in big spots. Or, in other words, to be the most valuable player on the field.
Prediction: Packers 20, Broncos 17 (9-3-1)
My mind has gone back and forth on this outcome all week. For a good while, I was convinced that the Packers offensive line would eventually be overwhelmed by a deep and disruptive Broncos front, especially in a noisy environment in Denver and especially if Josh Jacobs can’t go or is limited. Maybe that’s still going to happen. But the guess here is this will be a low scoring, back-and-forth defensive battle with some ugly moments, and at that point, the question becomes this: which quarterback do you trust more in a big spot late with the game on the line? Bo Nix has six game-winning drives this season, but Jordan Love is playing the position at an elite level, whether he needs to aggressively throw down field or manage the game down to down or find a big play in a big spot. He’s been terrific against the blitz. He’s dicing up man coverage. I think this is Love’s moment. Against an elite defense and on the road against an AFC contender, Love patiently keeps the Packers in the game and then delivers a signature play late.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers vs. Broncos: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 15
Reporting by Zach Kruse, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
