Who has the edge at quarterback entering Saturday night’s playoff showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears?
Even more attention than usual is paid to quarterbacks in the postseason, as some of the league’s best signal callers look to play their best football at the right time and propel their team towards a championship.
It is no different in this week’s matchup between the Packers and Bears, with Jordan Love and Caleb Williams going head-to-head for the third time this year (sort of).
Love was knocked out of the Week 16 matchup at Soldier Field with a concussion, forcing Malik Willis to play most of the game. Green Bay’s quarterback played a terrific game in the home leg of the regular season series two weeks before and will look to have the same kind of success this Saturday.
Analyzing the matchup between Love and Williams, it is pretty clear which team has the edge entering this weekend’s NFC Wild Card contest.
Love has been one of the very best quarterbacks in the league this season, taking the step the Packers were hoping for. Williams is a prodigiously talented young player, but he is at a different stage in his progression to the more experienced Love.
In almost every statistical category, Love has outperformed Williams in 2025. He has a higher yards per attempt (7.7 to 6.9), big time throw rate (5.8% to 4.7%), adjusted completion percentage (77.6% to 70.9%) and NFL passer rating (101.2) to 90.1).
Green Bay’s franchise quarterback has achieved all of those marks while also producing a lower turnover worthy play rate than Williams (2.7% to 2.8%) and throwing the ball farther downfield, with an average depth of target of 9.2 yards compared to 8.9 for Chicago’s quarterback.
Love is also less reliant on crutches like play actions and screens to help him have success. His PFF grade on the year is an exceptional 88.5. His average PFF grade without screens and without play action only drops to 88.45, essentially identical.
On the other hand, Williams’ PFF grade drops from 75.5 overall to an average of 72.85 without play action and screens. It is not a steep dropoff, but it is noteworthy that he is less effective in true drop back situations.
What about more difficult throws, like ones deeper downfield? Williams has an ever so slight edge when throwing deep, with a 95.5 grade compared to Love’s 95.3. Both grades are in the top six league wide.
The big discrepancy though is on intermediate passing. Love’s PFF grade when throwing between 10 and 19 yards downfield is 90.4, tied for the sixth best mark in the NFL. Williams’ grade is just 62.7, which is down in 34th of 41 qualified quarterbacks on the year.
Love has been better when kept clean this season, with a 95.4 grade compared to Williams’ 83.3, but the biggest advantage Williams has over Love is his ability to play under pressure.
Realistically, no quarterback is better under duress than not, so it should still be a goal of the Packers to make Williams uncomfortable, but his 63.4 grade under pressure is well clear of Love’s 56.7.
Williams is at his most dangerous when he is able to go off script, with his PFF grade jumping from 72.6 on throws in less than 2.5 seconds to 77.3 on throws taking longer. He is also a more dynamic runner, averaging five yards per carry to 4.2 for Love.
However, Love is also perfectly happy to let plays extend and actually has a slightly higher PFF grade than Williams on throws taking more than 2.5 seconds at 77.6. The other side of the coin is that he is also much better than Williams when throwing in under 2.5 seconds, with a 93.3 grade.
Their pressure to sack rate is almost exactly the same, with Williams just having the edge 10.8% to 10.9%, although the Bears quarterback is responsible for his own pressure more often, at a rate of 17.9% compared to 16.9% for Love.
Of course, these quarterbacks will be playing against different defenses, and although those defenses now rank similarly in a lot of categories, the biggest issue working against the Bears is their lack of ability to generate pressure without blitzing.
On the year, Chicago is blitzing at the 11th highest rate in the league, but is still only pressuring opposing quarterbacks at the 22nd highest rate. Love has been annihilating the blitz all year, with a 91.1 PFF grade when teams send five or more rushers at him.
The Bears not being able to pressure Love in the first matchup was part of what gave him the platform for a top performance. If they cannot get pressure without sending extra bodies – and Zach Tom should return to make that more difficult – it could be a long day for Chicago’s defense.
For his part, Williams has also fared well against the blitz with a 79.9 grade, and getting pressure without blitzing also figures to be a more difficult task for Green Bay now without Micah Parsons.
They did rack up 23 pressures on Williams in the Week 16 contest, but they blitzed on nearly 40% of his dropbacks, and he went 7 of 13 passing for 145 yards and two touchdowns against it.
Perhaps Jeff Hafley will sell out to put Williams under pressure again and play the variance game, but is not guaranteed to work out by any means.
In what is likely to be an offensive game overall, the Packers can ultimately feel better about their quarterback entering Saturday night’s showdown, but Williams will provide a real challenge once again.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers vs. Bears playoff preview: Green Bay has edge at QB with Love
Reporting by Mark Oldacres, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
