How well is Democrat Tony Evers positioned to win a third term as governor should he decide to run again next year?
In a new statewide poll by Marquette Law School, a majority of voters say he shouldn’t run again.
But in the same survey, Evers is the only major political figure with a positive rating in Wisconsin.
Uncertainties about Evers’ political future abound. We don’t know if he’ll run again in 2026. We don’t know who his Republican opponent would be. We don’t know exactly what issues will dominate. And we don’t know what political surprises are in store.
But without knowing those things, we can take stock of the “fundamentals” of an Evers re-election race — the basic political circumstances — and whether they appear at this moment to be favorable to a third term.
I will start with the political pluses for Evers, because I think they are more concrete and convincing right now than the minuses.
One is the governor’s public standing, as captured in the polls.
In the latest statewide survey released Wednesday by the Marquette Law School, 48% of registered voters approved of Evers’ performance and 46% disapproved. These are hardly spectacular numbers in and of themselves. But they are good numbers relative to those of other political figures in Wisconsin.
In the same poll, taken June 13-19, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson both have negative favorability ratings. And Republican President Donald Trump has a negative job rating, with 47% approving and 52% disapproving.
In fact, Evers has consistently polled better in this state than any other well-known politician.
Since he took office in 2019, his average job rating has been 50% approval and 41% disapproval in 35 surveys by Marquette, much better long-term numbers than those of Baldwin or Johnson, and especially those of Trump and his predecessor in the White House, Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump has never had a positive job rating in Wisconsin in any poll Marquette has taken during his two terms, even though he narrowly won two of his three Wisconsin elections (he has come close a few times). By contrast, Evers’ job rating has been consistently positive or “above water,” slipping into negative territory only four times in Marquette’s 35 polls during his tenure.
You wouldn’t conclude from the polling that Evers is unbeatable or even “safe.” But you wouldn’t conclude that he’s especially vulnerable either. Just to be above water is something of an accomplishment these days in this 50/50 state.
A more clear-cut advantage for Evers — and probably the biggest argument in his favor — is the nature of the 2026 election cycle. As a Democrat, Evers would have the good fortune of running with a Republican in the White House. History shows that it’s very helpful in big statewide elections to belong to the party out of power nationally. That’s because voters in the “out party” are often more motivated to turn out, and because swing voters frequently vote for change.
In Wisconsin, no incumbent governor or senator in the “out party” (the party that doesn’t occupy the White House) has lost an election since 1986. And it has happened only once since the 1960s.
Eight of the last nine contests for governor have been won by the “out party.”
The only exception was in 2022, when Evers won re-election despite the political drag of having an unpopular Democrat (Biden) in the White House. With Trump now in the White House, Evers should be better positioned in the 2026 midterms than he was in the 2022 midterms. There is no guarantee that 2026 will be a good year for Democrats, of course. But it’s a pretty good bet.
Now let’s turn to some potential political weaknesses, and these are a little more speculative.
One could be age. Evers is 73. Age has not been an issue for Evers the way it was for Biden, who is nine years older and came across to voters as a person in decline before he finally withdrew from the 2024 election. But it’s certainly possible that the combination of being in his 70s and seeking a third term could work against Evers politically among voters hungry for new faces and new leadership.
It’s also possible that simply seeking a third term could come with its own hurdles. Since a governor’s term in Wisconsin was lengthened from two years to four in 1970, only one person has won more than two terms in a row: Republican Tommy Thompson. Only one other person has tried, Republican Scott Walker, who lost to Evers in 2018 while seeking a third term.
Although the dynamics of Senate elections are different, both Wisconsin senators struggled mightily in their recent quests for a third term. Johnson won by 1 point in 2022, his closest race. Baldwin won by less than a point in 2024, her closest race.
Asked in the new Marquette poll, “would you personally like to see Tony Evers seek a third term as governor in 2026?” 42% of registered voters said yes and 55% said no. Pollsters generally view this question as a less reliable measure of an incumbent’s support than job approval. And Evers does better on this question than Walker did before seeking a third term, when only 36% said he should run again. But these numbers still suggest that the burden would be on Evers to make the case for such an extended stay in office.
Finally, let’s consider one other factor that could work either for or against Evers, and that is the state’s recent history of divided government. Evers has served his entire time with a Legislature controlled by Republicans. That means Evers hasn’t been able to do a lot of things to excite people and thrill his supporters. But it also means he hasn’t been able to do a lot of things to anger people and mobilize his opponents.
In fact, 2026 would represent his first real chance to govern with a friendly legislature, since the redrawing of districts in 2024 gives Democrats a plausible shot at legislative power next year after a decade and a half of GOP control.
Sixteen months ahead of the next election, there is room for debating what Evers’ odds would be of winning a third term in a state he carried by 1 point in 2018 and 3 points in 2022, a state in which the last two Senate elections and the last three presidential races were all decided by a percentage point or less.
I think history is a little bit more on Evers’ side than not.
But history also tells us that in Wisconsin, there are few safe bets anymore in big November elections.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Gilbert: Should Gov. Tony Evers run for a third term? Here are his political pluses and minuses
Reporting by Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
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