A 4½-point swing on a Week 16 point spread in an NFL game with a division lead at stake? Seriously, what are the odds on that?
Sure, it’s almost a lock for the Green Bay Packers to be favored at the beginning of the week against the Chicago Bears at this time of year. The perennially playoff-contending Packers have won 17 of the last 20 games against their rivals and 13 of the last 14.
But with control of the NFC North up for grabs for the second time in three weeks in the game at 7:20 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 20, this hasn’t been an ordinary week at all.
It’s likely not many gamblers would have placed a bet that the Packers would have been favored at Soldier Field for most of the week after losing star edge rusher Micah Parsons to a season-ending, non-contact knee injury in last week’s 34-26 loss to the Denver Broncos.
But Green Bay opened as a three-point favorite and was still the favorite until Josh Jacobs’ questionable status appears to have put a rush of money on the Bears, who are now a 1.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM. The line has shifted 2.5 to three points since Thursday, Dec. 18.
Even with the swing, BetMGM still gives the Packers a 51.8% chance to win the game.
So considering the fact that Parsons isn’t playing and the Packers have a significant amount of injuries, why were handicappers in Las Vegas continuing to like the Packers over the Bears until Friday?
According to an betting expert who was interviewed this week by the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs, it has more to do with the fact that Parsons doesn’t play quarterback.
ESPN’s Joe Fortenbaugh explained that the opening three-point spread favoring the Packers was established before Parsons was hurt and that number was almost immediately adjusted to one point after it was clear Parsons wouldn’t play Saturday.
“People were smart enough to realize there was something wrong with Parsons. It was a noncontact injury,” Fortenbaugh told the Tribune. “They hung the number at three and it got hit immediately and it’s down to one. That’s only two points but it’s moving off of three, which is a big move in itself.”
However, because he’s not a quarterback, the number apparently wouldn’t shift as much as many fans and bettors think.
“I can’t say Parsons is worth more than like a point because non-quarterbacks are not going to be worth a whole lot,” Fortenbaugh said. “That’s still very respectful to say he’s worth at least a point off of three, and the market is telling you he’s probably worth two because it has dropped to one.”
National websites appear split on the game:
ESPN
Matt Bowen said: “Give me Ben Johnson’s run game at home versus the Packers. The Bears rushed for 90 second-half yards in the Week 14 head-to-head matchup, delivering body punches with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. The Bears control the tempo of this game on the ground, and Caleb Williams makes enough plays outside of structure to cover the spread.”
Bowen’s bet: Bears +1.5
FanDuel
Jim Sannes said: “The injury list for the Packers is a concern, but so is the Bears’. I think the market moved a bit too far on this one.
“The Packers won’t have Micah Parsons and are unlikely to have Zach Tom, significant losses on each side of the ball. They will, though, likely have Christian Watson, after he logged limited practices on both Wednesday and Thursday. With how much he boosts the offense’s lid-lifting abilities, that’s huge.
“As for the Bears, not only is Rome Odunze out again, but so is Luther Burden III, robbing them of two of their top three receivers. With the offense still posting just middling efficiency numbers – they’re numberFire’s 13th-ranked pass offense – they need help. The falloff after D.J. Moore and Colston Loveland is concerning.”
Sannes’ line: Packers -2.5
CBS Sports
Tyler Sullivan said: “Losing Micah Parsons for the season due to a torn ACL is a gut punch for the Packers. The star pass rusher had 12.5 sacks on the season (tied for third-most in the NFL), and his absence completely changes how we look at the club’s chances of making a Super Bowl run. It also changes how opposing offenses game plan against them, and should make life wildly easier for Caleb Williams and Co. as they look to keep hold of the NFC North crown.”
Sullivan’s prediction: Bears 28, Packers 26
The Sporting News
Vinnie Iyer wrote: “The Packers took several blows in their loss at Denver, with Micah Parsons hurting their defense and Christian Watson and Zach Tom being a tough 1-2 punch on the offense. They still have Jordan Love and the running game and a solid run defense. Caleb Williams and the Bears’ run defense will oblige as the Packers finish a season sweep in swift succession.”
Iyer’s prediction: Packers 20, Bears 17
USA TODAY
Six writers are split, 3-3, on the Packers and Bears this week.
(This story was updated to add information.)
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Betting expert explains why Packers were originally favored over Bears
Reporting by Emmett Prosser, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
