Could the Houston Texans be even better than a 12-win team in 2026? One publication is sold on the potential entering the second stage of the offseason.
The only problem? They also believe Houston’s biggest threat to the AFC South division title will be the biggest threat in the conference.
NFL.com recently picked every game for all 32 teams in 2026 after the schedule release. For the Texans, a 12-win squad last season that secured a wild-card bid behind the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tom Blair sees a world where 13 victories are possible.
In Houston, it’s somewhat expected.
“I knew I was high on the Texans coming off their strong 2025, but I didn’t know I was this high. Will C.J. Stroud and the offense figure out a way to be consistently competitive? That remains a blank spot in the forecast, and it is going to heavily influence the viability of my predicted record,” Blair wrote. “The thing is, I became smitten last season with Houston’s defense, which was even more dominant, in some respects, than the one that helped power Seattle’s championship run, finishing first in the NFL in yards allowed per game (277.2) and defensive EPA per play (-0.18), per Next Gen Stats. I can see that unit pushing the Texans into their bye with a muscular 6-1 mark, after which a victory or two against one of the remaining non-divisional playoff contenders on the schedule could nudge them past 12 wins for the first time in franchise history.”
As the Texans return 10 starters on defense, all signs point to the growth of the offense under quarterback C.J. Stroud and coordinator Nick Caley. Even if Stroud improves slightly, other moves made to the offensive line and running back room should bolster the supporting cast, thus helping Houston secure another postseason bid.
For Blair, the Texans finish 13-4, but two of those losses come at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars, including the international game in Week 6. Because of that, Blair not only has the Jaguars winning the division, but also securing home-field advantage in the postseason.
“So here we have two AFC South teams finishing with 13 wins in the same season for the first time in the division’s history. What a world. And the Jaguars get there by sweeping the Texans for the first time since Blake Bortles pulled it off in 2017, giving them the edge in seeding,” Blair wrote. “This year, the Jags get a leg up by welcoming Houston to Wembley in Week 6 one week after Jacksonville’s initial international game against the Eagles in Tottenham. I was initially inclined to peg the Jaguars for regression — until I went back and refreshed my memory of their performance last season against teams that made the playoffs, as part of my research.”
Among the other losses for Houston, Blair has the Texans coming up short against the Los Angeles Chargers and Washington Commanders, a pair of road games, but one fresh off the bye week.
To read the whole list, click here.
Houston Texans 2026 schedule
This article originally appeared on Texans Wire: NFL.com high on Texans’ 2026 outlook, but still not viewed a division winner
Reporting by Cole Thompson, Texans Wire / Texans Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
