We are just about 72 hours away from toe meeting leather in Starkville, Mississippi. Texas rolls in alive for the CFP, but far from looking like a playoff team. Mississippi State is one of the most improved teams in the SEC and have already knocked off a top 25 team at home this season. Blake Shapen leads an explosive offense with Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III creating highlight after highlight.
This is going to be a battle for the Longhorns away from home. Can they get the win? It’ll depend on how they handle these matchups:
Arch Manning vs. Himself
This is not remotely to say Arch Manning is the problem with the Texas offense. That being said, he played hesitantly against Kentucky. He turned down open receivers, was as inaccurate as he’s been all year and could never string positive plays together. He’s played three of his four worst games on the road, and the Cowbells will be ringing Saturday. Of course, the OL plays into this, but Arch will be given “layups” on Saturday that he just has to hit. Manning handling the pressure and nerves of the moment will decide how well he plays. Manning needs to find some confidence early or this one could become ugly fast.
Jeff Lebby vs. Pete Kwiatkowski
Since the beginning of 2023, no one has scored more points in a game against the Texas defense than Oklahoma in 2023. That was Dillon Gabriel running a Jeff Lebby offense. This time it will be Blake Shapen, but this is where Texas has to win or they are likely to fall in Starkville. Lebby is incredibly good at finding openings in defenses, and Kwiatkowski has to combat that, likely without his leader Michael Taaffe. Kwiatkowski’s defense has been lights out thus far this season, and they will have to be just that on Saturday for the Longhorns to win.
Texas Secondary vs. Mississippi State Pass Catchers
This is where the game will be won and lost. Without Michael Taaffe, Derek Williams will be called on more often, and he has to be ready to defend the deep ball. Mississippi State does a great job of finding matchups and attacking them downfield, which means there will be moments the Texas CBs will be put on islands. Malik Muhammad has been as good as any CB in the SEC this season, Jaylon Guilbeau has played very well and Graceson Littleton has been a freshman star. Whether they can all hold up against Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III will decide this game.
Texas OL vs. Mississippi State Front Seven
Spoiler Alert: This will be on this list every single week for the rest of the season. The Texas OL played their second worst game of the season against Kentucky. Nick Brooks made a number of mistakes, as did Cole Hutson. The only lineman that is consistently playing plus football is DJ Campbell. It’s hard to pinpoint the difference between the Oklahoma game and Kentucky, but they have shown they can play passable football. This Mississippi State front seven has been one of the worst in the country against the run, and has only 10 sacks on the season. It’s impossible for me to say the Texas OL will win this battle, but it is a chance for them to take advantage of a weaker SEC front.
Ryan Niblett vs. Mississippi State Punt Coverage
The Texas offense needs to play much better, that can not be argued with. Ryan Niblett has been a spark plug for the offense, and they could use some short fields on the road again. If Niblett can get Manning and the offense a short field early in this game, allow them to get in the endzone, then the confidence can start to grow. Obviously, this is not something we can expect week in and week out, but if Niblett can get loose once early in the game, it could be the momentum Texas needs. All week, the Longhorns have talked about each phase helping the others, and Niblett aiding the offense early on Saturday would give Texas a clear path to victory.
Mason Shipley vs. The Cowbells
Currently, it’s hard for me to see Texas blowing anyone out. That means we are going to see Mason Shipley in major moments, as we did in Lexington. He handled those moments incredibly well, giving Texas the win, but this is a different battle. There are plenty of tough environments in college football, possibly even tougher ones, but this one is unique. There is no way to prepare the players for the chaos of the cowbells, despite Arizona State doing their best earlier in the season. Shipley, at some point on Saturday, will have to step up to kick, not being able to hear himself think, and knock a big kick through.
This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Matchups to watch in Mississippi State-Texas this weekend
Reporting by Tommy Bresee, Longhorns Wire / Longhorns Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
