The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is just three days away, and experts say Texans should be watching nearby Gulf waters — not distant waves rolling off Africa — for the first signs of trouble. Their main early concern runs from the central and eastern Gulf toward Florida and the northern Gulf Coast, but the same warm water that fuels those systems can also raise the stakes if anything drifts closer to Texas.
Already, warm Gulf and southwest Atlantic waters could support tropical development close to the Gulf Coast in early June, while forecasters also track increasing activity in the eastern Pacific.
“While we always monitor the tropics for potential threats, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the central and eastern Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Climatologically, this region can experience early-season tropical development.”
For now, forecasters say the greatest early-season threat is east of Texas, but a warm Gulf means any storm that does reach the western side of the basin could strengthen quickly before landfall.
Below-normal season still requires preparation
While predictions are for a “below-normal” season, forecasters continue to warn residents to prepare, and the earlier, the better.
People often suffer from a false sense of lead time, thinking big storms are going to come across the Atlantic with plenty of time, but that’s not generally the case, said Ken Graham, National Weather Service director.
“Every Category 5 that’s made landfall in this country was a tropical storm or less at three days out. They rapidly intensify and get here quickly,” he said. “Preparedness early is absolutely key.”
➤ Hurricane forecasters fear supercharged, early-season storms in 2026
Is there a tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook early May 28 showed nothing in the Atlantic basin to be concerned about for the next two to seven days.
Texans shouldn’t be concerned about the three tropical waves out there.
“The first waves that come off Africa are usually too far south, and there’s often too much dry air and wind shear for them to develop,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email. “There’s no real concern with these early-season tropical waves.”
What’s the hurricane forecast for Texas?
Looking ahead to the 2026 hurricane season, the highest risk of direct impacts is expected along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas.
Texas faces a lower risk compared to those regions, but storms can still hit.
“If there’s an area with a below-average chance of significant impacts, it would be the central and southern Texas coast, basically everywhere south of Houston,” DaSilva said.
Similarly, Colorado State University experts gave a 48% chance of a named storm tracking within 50 miles, a 21% chance of a hurricane, and an 11% chance of a major hurricane.
When is the earliest a hurricane has hit Texas?
The earliest major tropical system to hit Texas in recent modern records is Tropical Storm Allison, which made landfall near Freeport on June 5, 2001, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It was not a hurricane, but it became one of the most destructive early-season storms in state history, stalling over Southeast Texas and dumping nearly 37 inches of rain in places. The storm caused catastrophic flooding in the Houston area, including severe damage to the Texas Medical Center, and resulted in about $4.8 billion in losses and 23 deaths.
When was the most recent hurricane in Texas?
Beryl made landfall near Matagorda, Texas, around 4 a.m. on July 8, 2024, as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds near 80 mph.
Beryl formed on June 28 in the central Atlantic, rapidly intensified into a major hurricane, and became the earliest Category 5 storm in Atlantic history. It made multiple landfalls in the Caribbean and the Yucatán before moving into the Gulf and turning toward Texas.
At Matagorda Bay, sustained hurricane-force winds and storm surge pushed inland. The storm brought heavy rain — more than 8 inches in the Houston area, with isolated totals of 15 to 17 inches — causing flooding and road closures. Widespread outages: More than 2.7 million households and businesses in Southeast Texas lost power for days, with extensive outages across the Houston metro.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com. Find her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Experts eye the Gulf for early hurricane threats. Is Texas at risk?
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORK / Corpus Christi Caller Times
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
