That noise you heard was ESPN’s supercomputers crunching reams of numbers to simulate the 2026 NFL season thousands of times over in order to predict how it will all end.
The Worldwide Leader’s Football Power Index (FPI) unveiled its initial set of preseason ratings, rankings, and projections on Wednesday, and the outlook for the Cowboys shows at least some reason to hope that the team has gotten better over the offseason.
Unfortunately, the chances of that improvement leading to a playoff berth apparently still equate to less than 50/50.
The TL;DR read version for the season as a whole is that the Rams are far and away the team to beat, with a 14.9% chance of going on to be crowned Super Bowl champs. The Bills and Ravens are the most likely contenders from the AFC, and the NFC West has become the league’s power division, with three of the four teams placing in the FPI’s top five.
Dallas currently ranks 11th overall, with a projected finish of 9-8. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense is still the strength of the team, with the unit expected to contribute 1.8 points to the margin of victory over a neutral opponent on a neutral field. The defensive contribution is calculated at -0.2, demonstrating a belief that Christian Parker’s new-look defense is still slightly below average, but that number is basically canceled out by a special teams contribution of 0.2 over average.
The Cowboys’ overall ranking is good for seventh place within the NFC, meaning they are right on the bubble for playoff contention. Sure enough, their actual probability of making the postseason sits at 48.1% according to the FPI models.
Those odds would have them battling with the Buccaneers (47.3%) and Bears (46.5%) for the final playoff spot.
As for winning the NFC East, ESPN gives the Cowboys a 31.7% chance. They have a 26.2% probability of advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs, and a 12.2% chance of getting into the conference championship for the first time since the 1995 season.
The likelihood of earning a trip to the Super Bowl is currently pegged at 5.2%. And Dallas has a 2.6% probability of winning the whole thing.
If that number seems decent, though, consider that 15 other teams were given better odds of hoisting the next Lombardi Trophy. And the Cowboys don’t even make the list of the 10 most likely Super Bowl LXI matchups.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Cowboys 11th overall, but playoff chances look iffy
Reporting by Todd Brock, Cowboys Wire / Cowboys Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
