BUFFALO, N.Y. − Technically, it’s not over.
The Blue Jackets (39-28-12) are still alive in a tight playoff race following a stinging 5-0 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on April 9, but a pile of points that got away is now a mountain in the rearview.
Things are so tight in the NHL’s Eastern Conference that even one more regulation loss wouldn’t officially burst the Jackets’ playoff bubble, but missing the postseason for a sixth straight year has become their most likely fate going into the season’s last three games.
It’s a shocking difference from where they sat 10 games ago, going into a 1-0 loss to the New York Islanders on March 22. Since that frustrating night, the Blue Jackets have gone 2-7-1 following a sterling 19-2-4 run that took them from last in the East to second in the Metropolitan Division on March 24.
It’s been a mind-numbing fall from grace, even for a franchise that has qualified for the playoffs only six times in its first 25 years of existence.
How did this happen?
The reasons are numerous, but here are six most responsible for the Jackets’ nosedive:
Columbus Blue Jackets’ stars dimmed as pressure mounted
As games grew in importance, opposing teams began paying a lot more attention to defending the Blue Jackets’ top players, specifically Zach Werenski and Kirill Marchenko.
It worked, essentially negating Marchenko and holding Werenski in check compared to his offensive production as a whole. Werenski has five points on two goals and three assists in the Jackets’ 2-5-1 slump after averaging nearly a point-per-game beforehand, while Marchenko’s scoring line of 1-6-7 in those 10 games is far below his usual goal output.
Teams have raised their level of physical play against those two and center Adam Fantilli, and the results are striking. The Jackets’ offense went from one of the NHL’s most dangerous to scoring just 16 goals in their 10-game swoon.
Failure to capitalize dooms Columbus Blue Jackets
The final score in the Jackets’ most recent loss to the Sabres, 5-0, makes it look like Buffalo dominated Columbus from start to finish. But that’s not true. The Blue Jackets outplayed the Sabres by a slight margin in the first period while allowing the first goal and then outplayed Buffalo in the second without scoring.
They hit posts, crossbars, fumbled pucks to negate good scoring chances and struggled to beat a third-string goalie whose confidence skyrocketed with every shot he stopped. Colten Ellis made a few outstanding saves for the Sabres, but Natural Stat Trick’s statistical breakdown of the game shows the Blue Jackets failed to capitalize on a wide 13-6 edge in high-danger scoring chances at even strength.
This wasn’t a one-off in that regard. It’s happened throughout the season, including a 2-1 loss March 26 in Montreal to start a six-game winless slide that made up the bulk of their 2-7-1 collapse.
Key injuries put Columbus Blue Jackets into tailspin
That loss in Montreal was detrimental for another reason, as defenseman Damon Severson sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in the third period. That subtracted Werenski’s primary defensive partner from the top pairing and removed one of the Jackets’ top penalty killers.
The Jackets then lost power forward Dmitri Voronkov to a hand injury in their next game, a 3-2 loss to the San Jose Sharks on March 28, before losing Mathieu Olivier, their best power forward, in a 4-3 shootout loss March 29 to the Boston Bruins.
Olivier was a key part of a checking line that frustrated top lines with physical play and key depth scoring, and losing Voronkov removed what might have been a suitable replacement.
Columbus Blue Jackets wilted against intense forechecking
The losses to San Jose and Boston started the Jackets’ tailspin, but the way those games unraveled made things far worse. They mapped out a blueprint for the Carolina Hurricanes, Winnipeg Jets and any other team willing to risk putting all five skaters inside the Columbus blue line in a high risk/high reward forechecking strategy.
The Blue Jackets were stifled in three straight games by a 2-1-2 forechecking setup deploying two forwards low in the zone, one stationed in the high slot and two defensemen pressing on the Jackets’ exit pass targets. The intense pressure forced a lot of turnovers while the Blue Jackets tried to make plays through it, and their offensive presence was almost entirely negated.
They were held to 25 shots and 10 shots in consecutive losses to the Hurricanes before the Jets outshot them 26-16 in the Jackets’ 2-1 loss April 4 at Nationwide Arena. Columbus shot totals have since ballooned against the Red Wings and Sabres, but neither of those teams turned up the forechecking heat in nearly the same way.
Special teams betray Columbus Blue Jackets again
Since downing the Seattle Kraken 5-2 on March 31, the Blue Jackets’ special teams have bottomed out. After a lengthy run with impressive form on power plays and penalty kills, their success vanished at the most critical point in the season.
In their past 11 games, the Blue Jackets are 2 for 24 for an 8% success rate that ranks last in the NHL (32nd) and 15 for 24 killing penalties for a 62.5% success rate that ranks 30th in the league.
Severson played on the top penalty-killing unit and second power-play group, so his loss looms large, but the Blue Jackets’ struggle on special teams is something that keeps biting them.
Columbus Blue Jackets wore down with grueling March schedule
The NHL and Blue Jackets postponed a game against the Los Angeles Kings on Jan. 26 despite the Kings being in town for the game.
This became a big issue for the Blue Jackets when the game was rescheduled for March 9 at Nationwide Arena, giving them an additional back-to-back set that concluded March 10 in Tampa while pushing their monthly game total to a franchise high of 17.
After losing a 2-1 lead starting the third period against the Sharks, who then won on a late goal in regulation, Blue Jackets coach Rick Bowness said his team’s legs “weren’t there.”
The Jackets had a practice day between games going into that one, but it was their 15th game in 28 days, and they still had two more left to play in a 31-day month. Those were losses to the Bruins and Hurricanes, including a 3-0 lead after one period disappearing against Boston
Blue Jackets reporter Brian Hedger can be reached at bhedger@dispatch.com and @BrianHedger.bsky.social
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: 6 reasons Columbus Blue Jackets plummeted in playoff chase
Reporting by Brian Hedger, Columbus Dispatch / The Columbus Dispatch
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
