New York state’s Southern Tier continued to lose population in 2025, new data shows, but was there a silver lining as the decade hit its midpoint?
The U.S. Census Bureau recently released population estimates for counties as of July 1, 2025.
The Population Estimates Program, completed annually, uses current data on births, deaths and migration to calculate population change since the most recent decennial census in 2020. The new data provides a picture of where the region’s population stands after the first five years of the 2020s.
Overall, New York state’s population has declined by 1% (201,269 people) since the 2020 Census, but the population remained stable and even saw a slight .01% increase in 2025, according to an analysis by the Cornell Program on Applied Demographics.
Statewide, 47 of 62 counties reported more deaths than births between 2024 and 2025. The Southern Tier lost the most relative population due to natural decrease (-0.3%).
While Southern Tier counties lost population from 2024 to 2025, “the decline was not as severe” as it has been at times in the past, said Cornell Senior Extension Association Jan Vink.
“When you look at the slope, it was still negative but not as negative as it was for quite awhile,” Vink said. “The Southern Tier in the last decade lost a lot of population due to domestic migration. It’s still losing a little bit but not in the same numbers as we saw in the last decade. On the other end, we see kind of a widening gap from natural decrease, meaning more deaths than births every year.”
Southern Tier reflects population declines over last 5 years
The Southern Tier’s 2025 population estimate continued a long trend; the region has lost population every year starting in 2012-2013.
Livingston County’s population estimate was up slightly by 74 people from 2024 to 2025, but most counties in the region saw a decrease over the year. Aside from a few outliers, county populations are also down from 2020 numbers at the start of the decade.
Allegany County was up by 415 people in the 2025 population estimate compared to the same time in 2020. Vink said the bump lies in the county’s group quota populations at places like dormitories, nursing homes and jails, rather than a natural increase. Delaware County, meanwhile, was up 90.
Overall, the Southern Tier’s population is down 13,550 (2.1%) from the 2020 Census count of 640,000. The population fell just .25% year over year in the 2025 estimate.
“The migration seemed to stabilize a little bit (in 2025),” Vink said. “The Southern Tier lost some major industries in the last couple of decades. The aging of the population is also related to the natural decrease.”
Schuyler County lost the most in relative population (-5.41%) in the state between 2020 and 2025, according to the Cornell analysis, while Rockland gained the most (5.63%).
The Finger Lakes region is down .9% overall from 2020 but was up .09% in 2025 compared to 2024. Western New York is down 1.1% from 2020 and dropped .15% year over year.
Forecast for the second half of the decade
Vink expects current trends to generally continue over the rest of the 2020s, noting that the Southern Tier is less impacted by international migration than other parts of the state.
“There is some impact but as a percent of the population international migration is not that big,” Vink said. “It won’t affect this region as much. The natural decrease doesn’t turn around on a dime. We would expect that to be pretty much the same.”
Much of the Southern Tier’s population loss over the last several decades has resulted from domestic migration as residents moved away to other parts of the U.S. Vink said some positive economic developments, like the Micron chip plant under construction in the Syracuse area, could turn the tide to some degree.
“Domestic migration is difficult to predict,” Vink said. “In general populations are moving less. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. There are some bright spots like a Micron arriving and some industries looking at New York to expand there.”
How population numbers compare from 2020 to 2025
Here are the July population estimates for 2025 compared to 2020 across the Southern Tier and southern Finger Lakes, listed in alphabetical order.
Allegany County
2020 estimate: 46,385
2025 estimate: 46,800
Gain/loss: +415
Broome County
2020 estimate: 198,145
2025 estimate: 195,736
Gain/loss: -2,409
Chemung County
2020 estimate: 83,652
2025 estimate: 80,415
Gain/loss: -3,237
Chenango County
2020 estimate: 47,071
2025 estimate: 45,715
Gain/loss: -1,356
Delaware County
2020 estimate: 44,215
2025 estimate: 44,305
Gain/loss: +90
Livingston County
2020 estimate: 61,577
2025 estimate: 61,438
Gain/loss: -139
Schuyler County
2020 estimate: 17,863
2025 estimate: 16,924
Gain/loss: -939
Steuben County
2020 estimate: 93,371
2025 estimate: 91,855
Gain/loss: -1,516
Tioga County
2020 estimate: 48,352
2025 estimate: 47,453
Gain/loss: -899
Tompkins County
2020 estimate: 105,508
2025 estimate: 104,047
Gain/loss: -1,461
Yates County
2020 estimate: 24,735
2025 estimate: 24,537
Gain/loss: -198
This article originally appeared on Elmira Star-Gazette: Southern Tier population declined in 2025, but how much? Inside the numbers
Reporting by Chris Potter, Elmira Star-Gazette / Elmira Star-Gazette
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
