Warmer weather has settled into New York after a particularly rough winter and a roller-coaster spring.
April brought dramatic temperature swings across the state, with some days reaching the 70s and 80s — including a 90-degree day in Central Park — while parts of upstate New York still saw late-season snowfall. Syracuse recorded nearly 2 inches of snow during the month.
Now, with Memorial Day marking the unofficial start of summer and daylight stretching later into the evening, many New Yorkers are looking ahead to what the summer months could bring.
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, much of the country is expected to see hotter-than-normal temperatures this summer, with the most intense heat arriving in July and August. Rainfall nationwide is expected to vary more – even within New York – but overall trends drier in the summer 2026 long-range forecast.
What’s the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast for New York?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts mostly above-average temperatures across New York this summer, though conditions will vary by region.
All four regions of the state are expected to experience hotter-than-normal temperatures. Precipitation is forecast to be below average across most of New York, though some areas could see wetter conditions.
What’s the regional breakdown?
The almanac divides New York into four regions.
Western and parts of central New York – particularly areas closer to Lake Ontario – are expected to see conditions that are hotter and wetter than normal, with periods of hot, rainy weather.
Other regions, including the Capital Region, Adirondacks, Hudson Valley and New York City/Long Island, are forecast to have a hot and dry summer.
Parts of central New York and the Southern Tier are expected to be cooler and drier than normal, according to the almanac.
How accurate are almanacs?
For centuries, almanacs have provided long-range forecasts to help farmers plan and optimize crop yields.
A Climavision.com article notes that almanac forecasts carry uncertainty and should not be relied on for detailed predictions.
According to its website, the Old Farmer’s Almanac bases its forecasts on solar science (sunspot activity), climatology (weather patterns) and meteorology (atmospheric study). The almanac claims an 80% accuracy rate.
However, according to Climavision.com, studies suggest the forecasts are closer to 52% accurate, “making it unreliable for precise, long-term forecasts compared to modern meteorology.” A Popular Mechanics article also cited a 52% accuracy rate based on a University of Illinois study.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: NY summer 2026 forecast: Here’s what the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts
Reporting by Victoria E. Freile, New York Connect Team / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
