Two self-proclaimed centrists, one swing district and the most hotly contested midterm congressional race in the country boil down to one question.
Who can capture the critical moderate, unaffiliated voters in New York’s 17th Congressional District?
The race is shaping up to be the most illuminating contest of the 2026 midterms. Cait Conley, the decorated Army veteran and national security advisor to former President Joe Biden who moved to Ossining to run in the purple district, just romped through the Democratic primary to take on two-term Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler.
The comeptitive race is expected to be among the most expensive of the cycle.
What’s next for Mike Lawler?
Let’s start with Lawler. He deserves credit for bucking President Donald Trump and Republican party leadership on a number of key votes and initiatives.
He was one of six Republicans who joined all Democrats in April 2026 in voting to grant Temporary Protected Status to roughly 350,000 Haitian immigrants, blocking efforts by the Trump administration to terminate the program. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump could end the program.
With a significant Haitian population in Rockland County, Lawler may have to square off against Trump again to protect his Haitian constituents.
He famously blocked passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” until SALT — the state and local tax deduction — was increased from $10,000 to $40,000.
He is a co-sponsor of the Dignity Act, which proposes a pathway to legal status for millions of undocumented immigrants paired with stricter border enforcement.
When trump visited Rockland County in May, he referred to Lawler as “a pain in the —” over the SALT issue.
Trump’s transportation secretary, Sean Duffy, who was at the Westchester County Airport last week with Lawler to announce $18 million in federal funding to upgrade the airport’s air traffic control systems, also said the congressman’s constant haranguing to get what he wants for his district made him “annoying.”
These are not the positions of a MAGA loyalist.
Still, Conley will find plenty of conservative positions in Lawler’s record to try to frame him as “MAGA Mike.”
The image of the congressman onstage with Trump at Rockland Community College while the president prattled on about “Dumocrats” and stolen elections will likely prove to be a major role of the dice for Lawler. Lawler argued that no sitting congressman should refuse a visit from the president. Lawler himself went to see Biden when he was in town.
His vocal support for the increasingly unpopular war in Iran is also going to be a tough sell in November, especially if the tenuous peace deal and access to the Strait of Hormuz fall apart.
What’s next for Cait Conley?
Conley, on the other hand, has no voting record to defend and her professional work for companies associated with ICE contractor Palantir is shrouded in secrecy. Conley claims she can’t talk about specifics of her work because she is encumbered by a non-disclosure agreement.
An apparent conservative PAC disguised as the “Progressive Champions PAC” hammered Conley with attack ads over her Palantir connections during the primary.
It’s hard to know if that line of criticism is going land with moderates and unaffiliateds since it seems to have had negligible impact with rank-and-file Democrats in the primary.
Conley’s work for the government in national security isn’t flawless. Lawler has sharply criticized her for her connection to the disastrous 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan while she was working for the Biden administration’s National Security Council.
That’s going to be a tricky needle for Lawler to thread. Criticizing a former West Point graduate and veteran of several combat tours is fraught. Especially in a county like Rockland, where there are lot of families who have a member who has served in the military or are first responders.
What should we watch for in the NY-17 race?
The president’s party generally loses seats in midterms. Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018.
Lawler has outperformed his district in his first two elections, though.
There hasn’t been any reliable polling in the race. The non-partisan Cook Political Report has the race as a “toss up.”
In the end, both candidates can credibly claim the center. Conley’s path to moderate and unaffiliated voters is cleaner. Lawler has won decisively in this district but he ran against polarizing progressive figures. Conley is not that.
Lawler is a seasoned political veteran. He seldom missteps and I predict will dominate Conley in debates. Lawler called for six televised debates as soon as Conley won the primary.
Conley owes it to the voters to show up for at least four of them.
I spoke to a friend in television news recently who predicted local television station affiliates will rake in between $2- million and $5 million on the race. Bombarding voters with canned, carefully scripted half-truths in 30-second television spots is no replacement for good old fashioned one-on-one debates.
As a first-time candidate, Conley has chosen a pressure packed and nationally important campaign to cut her teeth on. She is likely to stumble along the way and Lawler will make her pay for it.
I’m looking forward to this race. Especially the debates.
Both candidates have carefully curated their own brands of pragmatism, but only sustained scrutiny in a district where elections are won on the margins and voters pride themselves on independence, this race is poised to reveal what “the center” really means in 2026.
Matt Richter, a veteran Hudson Valley journalist, is local news and regional opinion manager for lohud.com and The Journal News. He can be reached at mrichter@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Conley and Lawler battle to define NY’s political center | Opinion
Reporting by Matt Richter, Rockland/Westchester Journal News / Rockland/Westchester Journal News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Matt Richter, Rockland/Westchester Journal News | USA TODAY Network
