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U.S. House Democrats think they can flip this Indiana House seat. How likely is it?

The campaign arm of the U.S. House Democrats is adding Indiana’s 5th Congressional District to its list of competitive districts it’s trying to flip this November.

The move groups the race in with 46 other districts Democrats say are critical to flip in order to win the House majority. It also means that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will funnel a piece of its $79 million war chest toward state Sen. J.D. Ford’s campaign against Republican U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz.

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It’s the sole Indiana district to receive such a designation from the Democrats this year, though it mirrors Republican hopes in the 1st Congressional District, which the House GOP’s campaign arm is targeting for a flip.

The Democratic Party’s resources are likely to boost an already promising fundraising haul from Ford, who outraised Spartz in the last fundraising period. The Carmel Democrat has a history of flipping legislative seats, too: In 2018, Ford defeated incumbent Sen. Mike Delph, a Republican, in a swing state Senate district.

But the DCCC designation is far from a guarantee of victory. In 2022, when the district landed on the DCCC’s list of competitive districts, the Democratic candidate lost by a little more than 22 percentage points.

Much has changed since 2022, though. In the years since, Spartz rejected committee assignments, weathered furious constituents at a March 2025 town hall and beat her primary challenger by a smaller-than-expected margin in May.

The 5th Congressional District has not elected a Democrat to represent them since 1990. In 2020, Democrat Christina Hale came within six points of Spartz, though the district has since become more conservative after lawmakers redrew the boundaries during 2021 redistricting.

Multiple websites that rate races, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report, consider the 5th District solid or safe Republican.

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Contact breaking politics reporter Marissa Meador at mmeador@indystar.com or find her on X at @marissa_meador.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: U.S. House Democrats think they can flip this Indiana House seat. How likely is it?

Reporting by Marissa Meador, Indianapolis Star / Indianapolis Star

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

By Marissa Meador, Indianapolis Star | USA TODAY Network

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