INDIANAPOLIS — Almost nothing went according to prediction for the Colts in 2025.
Widely believed to be an also-ran without a quarterback, Indianapolis instead raced out to an 8-2 start behind the surprising emergence of Daniel Jones, prompting the Colts to take a big swing at the trade deadline for Sauce Gardner and sparking predictions of a home playoff game at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Then Jones got hurt, the pass rush wilted without a healthy DeForest Buckner and the Colts lost seven consecutive games, the freefall interrupted only by the inspirational return of a 44-year-old Philip Rivers, something nobody could have seen coming at the halfway point of the season, much less in May.
The NFL can be awfully difficult to predict.
But IndyStar is going to try again, making a way-too-early prediction on how the Colts’ 2026 season will play out on a game-by-game basis.
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Week 1: vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., Sept. 13
The Ravens have Lamar Jackson at quarterback, and they added Trey Hendrickson to revamp the pass rush, but Baltimore also has a new head coach, Jesse Minter, and a roster in transition. Daniel Jones returns for the season opener, takes advantage of the Ravens secondary and the Colts get off to a good start for the second year in a row. Pick: Colts 27, Ravens 23
Week 2: at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m., Sept. 20
If Patrick Mahomes isn’t recovered from the torn ACL that ended his 2025 season, then all bets are off, but if Jones is back from an Achilles, expect Mahomes back as well. Even with a limited Mahomes, the lack of Indianapolis pass rush becomes a problem, and the Colts lose a shootout in prime time. Pick: Chiefs 34, Colts 27
Week 3: vs. Houston Texans, 1 p.m., Sept. 27
Houston’s defense has only gotten better, and no matter how the offensive line shakes out, the Colts will have a young right tackle. Frustrated all day by the pass rush, Indianapolis drops a tough game to an AFC South rival. Pick: Texans 19, Colts 13
Week 4: vs. Washington Commanders, 9:30 a.m., Oct. 4 in London
Washington’s run to the NFC title game in 2024 was followed up with a disastrous 2025, and the Colts have handled international games well under head coach Shane Steichen. Indianapolis defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo makes life difficult on Jayden Daniels, and Steichen’s offense takes advantage of Dan Quinn’s scheme. Pick: Colts 31, Commanders 20
Week 5: at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., Oct. 11
Indianapolis broke one streak by winning the opener in 2025. Pittsburgh was a house of horrors for Jones a year ago, but with the Steelers still facing quarterback uncertainty in May and a changing of the guard at head coach, Pittsburgh feels more in flux than ever. Pick: Colts 21, Steelers 14
Week 6: vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., Oct. 18
Expect Tennessee to make some strides in Cam Ward’s second season as the starting quarterback, but it’s still a young team in the early stages of a rebuild. With momentum on their side and Jonathan Taylor rolling, the Colts make it three straight. Pick: Colts 34, Titans 20
Week 7: at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., Oct. 25
Minnesota is another team facing uncertainty at quarterback, but a coaching staff led by Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores is top-notch. Indianapolis struggles against all of Flores’ wrinkles, and Kyler Murray does just enough. Pick: Vikings 20, Colts 16
Week 8: at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., Nov. 1
If there were any questions left about the curse the city of Jacksonville has placed on the Colts, they should have been erased when Jones suffered a season-ending injury there last season. Until the curse is broken – maybe by a stadium renovation – it’s hard to see a win here. Pick: Jaguars 28, Colts 24
Week 9: vs. Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., Nov. 8
Dallas has tried to revamp its defense since trading Micah Parsons, but the Cowboys still don’t have a difference-making edge rusher who can hound Jones all day. With time in the pocket, Jones attacks Dallas with Alec Pierce and Josh Downs for a big win. Pick: Colts 38, Cowboys 31
Week 10: vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., Nov. 15
Miami’s a mess, a team in the process of laying a foundation after tearing everything down to the studs. The Colts know how to handle a team in that spot. Pick: Colts 35, Dolphins 17
Week 11: at Houston Texans, 8:15 p.m., Nov. 19
A short week on the way to Houston is a difficult test, especially considering how good the Texans’ defense has become. The schedule-makers did the Colts no favors with this Thursday night game. Pick: Texans 23, Colts 21
Week 12: vs. New York Giants, 1 p.m., Nov. 29
New York already has injury concerns with wide receiver Malik Nabers, and young quarterback Jaxson Dart is the kind of target that Anarumo can exploit. New York’s pass rush gives Jones some problems against his old team, but Taylor takes advantage of the lack of Dexter Lawrence for big yardage. Pick: Colts 31, Giants 21
Week 13: Bye
Week 14: at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m., Dec. 13
Philadelphia’s roster remains stacked, and even with the bye week, the Colts find themselves struggling at Lincoln Financial Field against a team that has been one of the NFC’s best since Nick Sirianni took over. Pick: Eagles 21, Colts 17
Week 15: at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., Dec. 20
Tennessee’s receivers simply don’t have the experience to beat Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward’s man coverage consistently, and the Colts get back in the win column by riding Tyler Warren to a big day. Pick: Colts 33, Titans 22
Week 16: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, time TBD, date TBD
If Joe Burrow is healthy, the Cincinnati offense is the kind of unit that could give the Indianapolis defense fits, and even though the Bengals’ defense is in its own rebuild, Burrow wins this one with a vintage performance. Pick: Bengals 41, Colts 38
Week 17: at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m., Jan. 3
With a snowstorm whipping in off the lake, the conditions are difficult, but Cleveland’s fatal flaw is a quarterback position that is somehow still begging for a savior. Indianapolis keeps itself in the playoff race with a hard-fought win. Pick: Colts 24, Browns 14.
Week 18: vs Jacksonville Jaguars, time TBD, date TBD
With a playoff berth on the line, the Colts get moved into prime time for a game against the Jaguars, and Jones returns the favor for what happened in Jacksonville in 2025. A last-second field goal sends Indianapolis into the playoffs as a wild card. Pick: Colts 27, Jaguars 24
Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Now that schedule’s out, here are Indianapolis Colts 2026 game-by-game predictions
Reporting by Joel A. Erickson, Indianapolis Star / Indianapolis Star
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