Indiana Republican delegates are expected to nominate incumbent Diego Morales as their secretary of state candidate at their state convention in June.
That’s good for my business, but bad for our state. While columnists like me love commenting on Morales’ never-ending shenanigans, every second he remains in power is bad for Indiana.
Morales winning the nomination, though, might prove to have a long-term positive impact by forcing Republicans to reckon with the prospect that he’ll lose to Democrat Beau Bayh ― especially with former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, who has mounted an independent bid for the seat, potentially playing spoiler.
Republican delegates will stick with Morales. Voters won’t.
For a group that took great pride in the defeat of at least six incumbent state senators last week, Republicans should be excited about getting rid of more sludge dragging the party down. Delegates do not seem to have the same fervor about Morales, despite headlines and personal conduct much worse than those who just lost.
Morales seems on track to win at the convention with some ease. His support will come from counties outside Central Indiana that don’t get the regular updates on his abhorrent behavior, coupled with county chairs in the tank for Morales who appoint reliable supporters as delegates.
If Republican delegates nominate Morales, Ballard’s independent campaign would benefit. He has a strong reputation in Central Indiana and would become a safe harbor for people unable to stomach Morales but unwilling to vote for a Democrat.
Ballard is attempting to gather 37,000 verified signatures to get on the ballot. While the signature threshold is daunting, Ballard claims he’s acquired more than 20,000. Coupled with his reporting nearly $300,000 in donations, he should have enough resources to pull it off.
Ballard’s name on the ballot almost guarantees he will acquire the 2% vote threshold necessary to get his new political party, the Lincoln Party, general election ballot access. He could very well blow past the 10% vote threshold required to get the Lincoln Party primary ballot access.
Appearing on primary ballots is effectively state-subsidized advertising worth millions. It will almost certainly enhance the quality of candidates the new Lincoln Party is able to attract. Over time, the party could serve as a viable option for Hoosiers sick of both Republicans and Democrats.
Democrats might finally wave bye-Bayh to losing
To make matters worse for Republicans, the Indiana Democratic Party could finally nominate someone capable of winning since their last statewide victory in 2012. After years of horrible choices for statewide offices, Democrats have hit the jackpot with likely nominee Beau Bayh.
Bayh is the son of former Indiana Gov. and U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh. He has staked out a moderate lane, supporting issues such as voter ID, while shying away from extreme social positions that alienate many voters.
He is also flush with cash. He has already raised nearly $2 million, and could raise millions more.
That will buy a lot of ads across Indiana. Bayh will dominate every media market and be visible on just about every platform. Much of his resources will be spent reminding Hoosiers of Morales’ numerous scandals.
Morales only won the 2022 Secretary of State’s race by around 257,000 votes. He was already so disliked that Libertarian Jeff Maurer was able to score nearly 105,000 votes, despite raising little money. I suspect most of Maurer’s support came from protest votes by Central Indiana Republicans.
Morales, however, had the benefit of running against a radically progressive and unlikable Democrat, Destiny Wells.
Republicans lack an alternative to Morales
This time around, both Bayh and Ballard will use their vast resources to pound Morales on his record of self-indulgence and incompetency. It is a recipe for disaster for Republicans. A very real scenario exists where Bayh becomes Secretary of State while securing less than 45% of the vote.
Knox County Clerk David Shelton is Morales’ chief opponent at the convention. While many delegates believe Shelton is the superior choice, others worry he lacks the firepower required to take down Morales. Still, Republicans are so concerned about the prosapect of Morales losing this fall, some are trying to recruit another candidate to run.
If Morales is the nominee, I predict a final tally could look something like Bayh at 43%, Morales at 40%, Ballard at 15% and Libertarian Lauri Shillings at 2%. Democrats would get the office. The Lincoln Party would get primary ballot access for the next four years and the ability to pilfer votes from Republicans in races for senate, governor, attorney general and others in 2028.
Many Republicans are picturing this nightmare scenario ― and wondering how, or if, it can be averted.
Rob Kendall is the host of The Rob Kendall Show podcast, which airs weekdays from 9 a.m. to noon on YouTube and on demand on most major podcast platforms. You can learn more at RobKendallShow.com.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Diego Morales is a gift to Indiana Democrats | Opinion
Reporting by Rob Kendall, Contributing Columnist / Indianapolis Star
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