Will a heat dome encourage the development of a tropical system as the Fourth of July holiday begins?
There’s little doubt it’ll be hot this weekend. The National Weather Service offices in Florida have been warning for days that heat advisories are possible June 27-28, with the heat index increasing to close to 110 in some areas.
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Bertha will be the second-named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but no tropical cyclone development is expected over the next seven days.
AccuWeather forecasters are keeping an eye on the southwestern Atlantic and northern Gulf for possible tropical development the first week of July.
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The National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves out there, but don’t be too concerned about them.
“The first waves that come off Africa are usually too far south, and there’s often too much dry air and wind shear for them to develop,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said via email. “There’s no real concern with these early-season tropical waves.”
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Could we see Tropical Storm Bertha in early July?
“Warm Atlantic and Gulf waters, combined with the edge of a building heat dome, could allow storm clusters to organize into a tropical system as July begins,” according to AccuWeather.
Even if a tropical depression or storm doesn’t develop, “periods of heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms are likely next week from the Carolinas through Georgia and Florida to Louisiana and Texas,” according to AccuWeather.
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“Tropical risks are pretty much zero for the rest of June and the start of July,” according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
Here’s what the Hurricane Center is tracking in the tropics on June 26, 2026.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
What’s happening in the tropics today, June 26?
At 8 a.m. Friday, June 26, the National Hurricane Center said no tropical cyclone development is expected over the next seven days in the Atlantic basin.
National Hurricane Center tracking 4 tropical waves today, June 26
Forecasters are keeping an eye on four tropical waves:
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” DaSilva said.
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“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms that have some organization, but not the defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances to develop as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray X have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years, which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins today. What can Florida expect?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S., per an order from President Donald Trump.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Could Florida be hit by a hurricane in 2026? See which counties have highest chance
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and how to pronounce them, are:
Florida weather radar for June 26, 2026
Weather watches and warnings in Florida
When is the peak of Atlantic hurricane season?
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
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Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical storm outlook for Florida ahead of Fourth of July holiday
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Palm Beach Post
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By Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
