It was a busy weekend in the tropics, with three disturbances appearing in the Atlantic.
One could become a tropical depression later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
If maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would become Cristobal, the third-named storm of the season.
While this season is expected to see below-normal activity due to the presence of a strong El Niño, forecasters have been warning Florida residents should always be prepared.
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Where these systems ultimately track will be an important factor in determining how much they can strengthen, according to AccuWeather.
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Here’s what you should know based on the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Aug. 10.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
Not at this time, although the National Hurricane Center said “environmental conditions are forecast to be moreconducive for development by midweek, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week.”
The disturbance with the highest chances of development is following a tropical wave currently halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
“As the leading wave moves through the Atlantic, it could help displace some of the dry air and dust along its path, potentially leaving a somewhat more favorable environment for the second wave to follow,” according to AccuWeather.
If the second wave stays north of the Lesser Antilles, it could avoid the worst wind shear, allowing strengthening over the warm Atlantic waters.
“For now, neither disturbance poses an immediate threat to land,” according to AccuWeather.
Tropical depression could form this week in Atlantic
Here’s what the National Hurricane Center said at 2 a.m. Aug. 10 about the disturbance showing the highest potential for development this week:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
As this system moves slowly westward, a tropical wave currently over west Africa is expected to merge with it in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
National Hurricane Center tracking 3 disturbances in Atlantic basin
Besides the disturbance showing a medium chance for development over the next seven days, the National Hurricane Center is also tracking two others:
Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about midway between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Some gradual development of this wave is possible through mid-week while it moves quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later in the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Western Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves quickly eastward, well to the north of Bermuda across the western and central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation after Wednesday.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NHC map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
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The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with orange medium and red high. In 2026, the tropical outlook will use a gray X to indicate disturbances with a low chance for development.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Florida weather radar for Aug. 10, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Tropical depression possible. Here’s the outlook for Florida
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Treasure Coast Newspapers
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
