PANAMA CITY — The weather is looking shaky and quite wet in the days ahead for Bay County.
There’s a marginal risk, 1 out of 5 on the National Weather Service’s scale, for severe weather in Bay County on Thursday, May 8. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that the likelihood for severe weather will continue into Friday, May 9.
The main concerns are isolated damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of a quarter. The conditions are expected to set in the afternoon/evening of May 8 for this area.
With the storms will come some much-needed rain. The April 29 U.S. Drought Monitor update placed Bay County squarely within a moderate drought as fires raged on across the area.
Panama City will have a 70% chance of rain on May 8, jumping up to 80% on May 9, before dipping back down to 70% on May 10, then to 60% on May 11.
“Multiple waves of rain and storms, locally heavy, is expected across the area beginning Thursday and lasting at least into the first part of next week,” says a meteorologist with NWS Tallahassee. “While confidence is increasing in the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding, the exact placement and rainfall totals are still relatively low confidence.”
The meteorologist goes on to say that rainfall totals throughout the area will range between 4 and 8 inches through May 12. They are concerned that this could create localized flood events.
“If the rainfall forecast continues to the increase, a Flood Watch may be needed for parts of the area in the coming days,” says the forecaster. “Keep in mind we are still about 2 to 3 days out from when the bulk of the rainfall is expected, and the forecast can and probably will change between now and then.”
The forecast discussion for this area says rainfall totals of over a foot are on the table in the coming days, which would create a flash flooding risk.
Rainfall expectations begin to let up on Tuesday, May 13.
Outside of the complete washout over the weekend, low temperatures are expected to drop slightly over the next week. Lows in the upper 60s are anticipated starting May 9.
The severe weather comes ahead of what AccuWeather is saying could be an early start to hurricane season, which typically begins in June. A release from the weather company says that there’s a low risk for preseason tropical development in the Caribbean starting next week.
This comes ahead of what’s expected to be another active year, with as many as 17 named storms possible.
This article originally appeared on The News Herald: Severe storms possible ahead of potential for foot of rain in Bay County
Reporting by Dylan Gentile, Panama City News Herald / The News Herald
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