(This story was revised to reflect the formation of Tropical Storm Erin and to correct the byline information.)
Tropical Storm Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic the morning of Aug. 11. Now, will we see the season’s first hurricane this week?
What started out in the morning as Invest 97L in the eastern Atlantic was declared the Atlantic hurricane season’s fifth named storm shortly after 10:30 a.m. Aug. 11 by the National Hurricane Center.
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AccuWeather forecasters are predicting it could become a hurricane by Aug. 14, strengthening into a Category 3 storm by Aug. 16 but curving north on a parallel path to Florida. Historically, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season forms Aug. 11.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Invest 96L is moving north in the central Atlantic and has a low chance for development.
NOAA hurricane tracker: See spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now? How likely are they to strengthen?
Who is likely to be impacted by Invests 96L and Tropical Storm Erin?
It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the invests in the Atlantic, although Invest 96L is expected to continue north in the central Atlantic and has a low chance for development.
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However, Erin could bring an increase in rough surf and rip currents to the east coast next weekend and into early next week, even if it curves north, staying away from Florida and the U.S., according to AccuWeather.
“The tropics remain quiet, and are likely to stay that way for another 10 days or more,” said Ryan Truchelut on Aug. 9.
“Still, we know well hurricane seasons can be nowhere to be found, then suddenly impossible to avoid. While there is hope the active peak months of hurricane season may not translate into another awful year in human terms, the reality is that U.S. hurricane impacts are likely and to be expected over the next few months.”
Truchelut is the chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger and works with the USA TODAY Network.
What to expect in St. Augustine this week
Regardless of what happens with Erin, St. Johns County can expect seriously hot temperatures and a good chance of strong storms. The National Weather Service in Jacksonville said on Aug. 11 to expect heat index values over 100 for the next several days.
Thunderstorm chances each day will be hear 50%.
Here’s a look at the full seven-day forecast from the NWS Jacksonville office:
Florida weather radar for Aug. 11, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
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This story has been updated to correct a misspelling.
This article originally appeared on St. Augustine Record: Tropical Storm Erin forms in Atlantic. What can St. Augustine expect this week?
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud and Fernando Cervantes Jr., USA TODAY NETWORK / St. Augustine Record
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
