We are finally here.
Mike Norvell enters his sixth year coaching Florida State football, and it is a crucial one. After going 2-10 last year, Norvell knows he can’t afford another failed season.
He is 33-27 at FSU and 20-20 in the ACC.
Norvell has two winning seasons under his belt, with his best one obviously being 2023 when the Seminoles went 13-1, winning the ACC title and falling short of making the College Football Playoffs.
To Norvell’s credit, he has made the necessary moves to get his program back on track by bringing his mentor Gus Malzahn to run his offense while he takes a step back and Tony White is the defensive coordinator.
After his failed project with quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, he is banking on Tommy Castellanos to improve the offense, which was one of the worst, if not the worst, in college football last season.
Norvell should be evaluated not only on wins and losses but also on how the Seminoles look when facing Alabama in its season opener on Aug. 30, and where they stack among other ACC opponents, especially against Miami and Clemson.
Now, it is unfair to say that FSU needs to get back into the playoff picture to save Norvell’s job. However, realistically, there must be progression in the program.
Let’s be reasonable, yet firm. How many games is enough for Norvell to remain FSU’s head coach? Also keep in mind, he has an estimated buyout of around $54 million if fired without cause after the 2025 season.
Six wins or less won’t cut it
This is clearly a no-brainer. A losing record is unacceptable. And there’s no telling how much goodwill a .500 record might bring Norvell.
With expectations high, six wins might not be enough to persuade the fan base, the FSU Board of Trustees or athletic director Michael Alford that Norvell is the long-term solution for the program.
Seven is OK, but eight is the magic number
Going to 7-5 is reasonable, and Norvell will see another year of coaching. Eight wins put FSU slightly above average, which will be considered a successful season, especially after going 2-10.
Eight wins may not make the Seminoles a playoff team, or maybe it could, thanks to the new 12-team playoff expansion, but it does show the Seminoles are back on track and heading in the right direction to be a playoff-contending team for years to come, potentially.
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Peter Holland Jr. covers Florida State athletics for the Tallahassee Democrat. Contact him via email at PHolland@Gannett.com or on X @_Da_pistol.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: How many games does Florida State football coach Mike Norvell need to win to keep his job?
Reporting by Peter Holland Jr., Tallahassee Democrat / Tallahassee Democrat
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