Fits of dousing showers and battleship clouds are forecast to harry Florida’s Gulf Coast through the weekend as an area of thunderstorms with a sliver of tropical ambition meanders north.
The National Hurricane Center continued to highlight an oval-shaped region stretching from coastal Louisiana through North Florida but kept the odds of a tropical cyclone forming over seven days at 30% as of the afternoon of Friday, July 17. The chance of formation over 48 hours was 10%.
Meteorologists recommended keeping an eye on the idling area but said regardless of whether it earns the name Bertha — the next name on the 2026 hurricane list — heavy rains are expected.
As much as 7 inches is possible into Monday in the Tampa Bay area with more widespread amounts in the area of 2 to 3 inches, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
Areas from Panama City through Cedar Key may also get a dousing of up to 3 inches into Monday.
“There could be some urban flooding because there is only so much capacity that storm water systems can handle per hour but there will be breaks in the rain and if we get those breaks the threat will remain pretty low,” said Austen Flannery, a meteorologist with the Tampa Bay NWS office. “Is it possible to see 10 inches over seven days, sure.”
Flannery said some “very scary” higher rain amounts that were seen in some models are not “realistic or reasonable.”
Where will the bulk of rain hit Florida this weekend?
Rainfall amounts also depend on if and where the system forms. On Friday, the bulk of rain was forecast to fall over the steaming waters of the northeastern Gulf.
“If it’s closer to shore or farther north, that could bring some heavier rainfall amounts to North Florida and the Big Bend,” said Wright Dobbs, a NWS meteorologist in Tallahassee. “That’s one thing I want to bring attention to. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this system.”
The rain will likely be welcome as a nagging drought persists in Florida despite it being two months deep into the wet season. The wet season typically lasts between mid-May through mid-October.
A U.S. Drought Monitor report issued July 16 showed no change from the previous week with 16% of the state in extreme drought, which is the third highest level on a four-tier severity scale. Nearly 60% of the state is in moderate to severe drought.
Only 7.5% of the state has no drought, including a narrow stretch of the Treasure and Space coasts and the western Panhandle.
Tampa Bay, the Big Bend region and a stretch of Everglades are the most parched.
“The key thing coming into this event is that we are going into it fairly dry,” Flannery said. “Our soils can handle a lot of water so there’s not a super big concern there.”
Although the Central Gulf Coast is forecast to be hit hardest by rain, Jacksonville-based meteorologists said the deep moist airmass associated with the developing low pressure will spread over North Florida through the weekend sparking showers and thunderstorms every day.
Will South Florida get any of the heavy rain this weekend?
South Florida will also get a taste of the mischief in the Gulf, with a boost in moisture levels, higher rain chances and increases in the potential for strong thunderstorms packing damaging wind gusts.
“Despite the spike in rain and thunderstorms, there should be enough sunshine for keeping max temps in the 90s each day,” the Miami NWS wrote in a forecast discussion.
Miami hit 97 degrees on Thursday, tying the previous record set in 1981.
The National Hurricane Center is also watching a tropical wave that left the coast of Africa earlier this week and is about 175 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. The Center is giving it a 10% chance of development, but hurricane experts aren’t expecting much.
Irene Sans, a meteorologist who writes for Yale Climate Connections, said the system is moving into a “very hostile environment” that will likely mangle any attempt at formation.
“The good news is that this system will remain over the open Atlantic and is not expected to affect land,” Sans wrote in a forecast.
The average date for the second named tropical storm to form is Aug. 17. On average, the first hurricane forms by Aug. 11.
Because of the forecast for a strong El Niño, storm shredding wind shear is expected to scream through the main runway between Africa and Caribbean for much of the season, but those cutting winds could lighten in the Gulf and along the Eastern Seaboard.
“Keep in mind that the areas that are forecast to be most favorable for tropical development during the peak months of the season are much closer to land,” Sans wrote. “This means that if any system were to develop, residents would have much less time to prepare for and monitor and approaching tropical storm or hurricane.”
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. She covers weather, the environment and critters as the Embracing Florida reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Heavy rain to hit Florida Gulf Coast through the weekend
Reporting by Kimberly Miller, USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida / Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Kimberly Miller, USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida | USA TODAY Network
