Two primary results caught my eye the other night when I learned the winners could make history in the November general election.
Despite winning only 40% and 41% of the Democrat vote in Indian River and Martin counties, respectfully ― she took almost 55% in St. Lucie County ― Nixon became the first Black woman to win a major party nomination for Senate in Florida.
Will Nixon primary win end up haunting Democrats?
Thus, if she can beat Ashley Moody, the former Florida attorney general Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped to be U.S. senator in 2024 to replace Marco Rubio, Nixon would become the first Black woman to serve Florida in the Senate.
To me, the chances of Nixon beating Moody are about the same as the odds of not having an afternoon Florida thunderstorm on the Treasure Coast — the whole month of August.
Kalshi, the online exchange and prediction market “where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events,” listed Nixon’s chances of winning at 6% as of Aug. 20.
To put that into perspective, the exchange gives James Martin, the Hobe Sound Democrat who won the primary and the right to face U.S. Rep. Brian Mast, R-Fort Pierce, a 10% chance to win in November.
To me, the Nixon victory is the latest example of Florida Democrats sabotaging a potential victory.
Vindman, a more moderate Democrat, had major national name recognition and support from voters of all parties who do not approve of the president’s performance. The $16 million Vindman raised in campaign contributions was more than the $14 million Moody collected. Nixon raised only about $1 million in what turned out to be a major upset.
I highly doubt Florida — with 1.4 million more Republicans than Democrats who represent 41.4% of all voters ― would be all-in for a Democratic Socialist or someone who espouses “a national rent freeze and moratorium on evictions,” a minimum wage of $25 an hour and “canceling student debt.”
Sure, she’ll get a lot of votes from Democrats and left-leaning independents, but Vindman would have had a much better chance of winning.
The other question is how Nixon’s win will impact Democrat David Jolly’s gubernatorial race against Republican Byron Donalds. How badly will the GOP try to link Jolly, a former GOP U.S. House member, with Nixon? The exchange gives Donalds an 80% chance of winning, but a poll cited on Kalshi shows the race much closer, with Donalds ahead, 44.5% to 41.9%, with others undecided.
Route to a seven-man congressional race unusual
Then there’s Green, who will have the usually difficult task of defeating an incumbent congressman.
But this is not a usual election.
Green’s path to the nomination was bizarre, starting with Trump’s call for red state legislatures to take the unusual step of gerrymandering congressional districts to the GOP’s advantage even though they had redistricted them after the 2020 U.S. Census.
The Florida redistricting, created by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ team behind closed doors and presented to the Republican-dominated Legislature at a hasty special session, broke Indian River County away from its longtime coastal congressional companions ― more recently in Brevard County.
Instead, Indian River was lumped in with inland counties: Glades, Highlands and Okeechobee, along with parts of Orange, Osceola and Polk.
The move gave Republicans a voter registration majority so it could attempt to oust U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, D-Kissimmee, the first Floridian of Puerto Rican descent in Congress. He has served District 9 since 2017.
While a few candidates had already planned to run, Green, who owns a home in Vero Beach, but has worked in the nation’s capital for the Bush and Trump administrations, saw his opportunity.
He’s an astute political scientist, having worked on GOP campaigns for years. He saw that Indian River County — where his parents live and where he grew up — had the most and best-organized Republicans in the new congressional district.
Green survives battle royale
Those numbers were on display in the primary, when Green garnered 7,607 of his home county’s 21,299 GOP votes. His tally dwarfed the 4,664 votes self-funded businessman Thomas Chalifoux received in his home Osceola County, which had the second largest GOP vote total at 13,925.
Green’s strategic military defense and Navy background, research in Yemen, and expertise in counterterrorism and foreign relations ― documented partly in numerous books he’s written about his deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan ― make him a solid candidate.
And in a few weeks ― the 25th anniversary of 9/11 — Green can remember his coworkers at the Pentagon who died in the attack there. It’s part of what sparked Green to join the Navy, where he still serves in the reserves. On Oct. 12, he can remember the al Qaeda attack on the USS Cole in Yemen, which killed 17 U.S. sailors, including Green’s fellow VBHS student Ronald Scott Owens, 24.
Green and Butler ran the best primary campaigns, though I kept hearing from voters how fed up they were receiving mailers from Green (I collected 16) and Chalifoux (9).
Another competitor, Jorge Martinez, who finished fourth in the race, sent seven mailers. Three I saw made the mistake of blasting Green (negative advertising doesn’t usually work well in Indian River County), claiming he “tried to stop President Trump” by campaigning against him in 2022 (when Green helped the DeSantis presidential effort).
Then again, I can’t imagine having to run a four-month campaign against so many competitors across seven counties and multiple media markets.
It truly was a battle royale, to borrow an old professional wrestling phrase.
How close will the November race be?
For the next few months, though, Green will have just Soto to worry about, mano a mano.
Kalshi gave Green a 70% chance of winning Aug. 20, though other more politics-oriented websites are a little less confident. Three of four political websites cited by Ballotpedia.org listed the race as “likely Republican,” while one had it as “lean Republican.”
On Aug. 11, the Silver Bulletin, which predicted Chalifoux, the top fundraiser, as the likely GOP nominee, beating Soto in a “toss-up.”
It listed the race as the fourth most competitive in the nation, giving Democrats a 46.4% chance of winning.
As of July 29, federal reports showed Soto, who had no primary opposition, with $1.2 million cash on hand. Green had $363,000.
Given the potential tightness of this race and the impact on which party controls the U.S. House, Green-Soto could generate a lot of national money and attention.
If Soto wins, it will be the first time Indian River County has been represented in Congress by a Democrat since Jim Bacchus, an Orlando attorney, in 1995.
If Green wins, he will be the first Indian River County resident to represent his hometown in Congress, according to records and county historian Ruth Stanbridge.
That would be quite the accomplishment.
This column reflects the opinion of Laurence Reisman. Contact him via email at larry.reisman@tcpalm.com, phone at 772-978-2223, Facebook.com/larryreisman or Twitter @LaurenceReisman.
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Florida primary winners could make history, get national nod | Opinion
Reporting by Laurence Reisman, Treasure Coast Newspapers / Treasure Coast Newspapers
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Laurence Reisman, Treasure Coast Newspapers | USA TODAY Network
