Forecasters are keeping an eye on a disturbance in the western Gulf.
Chances for development continue to increase. At 2 p.m. June 15, the National Hurricane Center is now giving the disturbance a medium chance for development over the next two to seven days.
A “short-lived tropical storm” could develop in the Gulf June 17 into June 18, forecasters said.
A “large surge of moisture” is already moving into Texas, according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lede hurricane expert, via email early June 15.
Florida residents shouldn’t be concerned about the four tropical waves out there.
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Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and gusty winds are possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas and Louisiana this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Florida currently is expected to miss most of the heavy rain associated with the system, although parts of the western Panhandle could feel some impacts later this week.
It’s important to be aware of what’s happening in the tropics and make sure you’re prepared for any potential storms.
In the Atlantic basin, there have been no named storms as of June 15. Wind shear and Saharan dust are helping prevent tropical development.
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The first named storm in the Atlantic will be Arthur.
“The first waves that come off Africa are usually too far south, and there’s often too much dry air and wind shear for them to develop,” DaSilva said.
2026 Atlantic hurricane season has begun
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump.
Countdown to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Could Florida face tropical threat this week?
“Concern continues to grow over this potential tropical area in the western Gulf,” DaSilva said.
“A large moisture surge is already moving into Texas and will continue to move north over the coming days. This area of moisture was enhanced by a tropical wave and what was Tropical Storm Cristina (in the Pacific).
“This area of disturbed weather will need to be watched closely over the coming days for tropical development as it will move into the western Gulf later this week. The timeframe for possible development is June 16-17 before the system moves into Texas.
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“Regardless of any organized development, life threatening flash flooding will be possible across portions of eastern Texas over the coming days. By the middle of the week, the plume of moisture is forecast to merge with a cold front moving in from the north leading to widespread heavy rain across the Gulf Coast states,” DaSilva said.
“Overall, Florida is expected to miss most of the heavy rain. The heaviest rain in Florida will likely occur in the western Florida Panhandle during the middle to late portions of the week.
“Looks like this will be the only thing that we will have to watch over the next week for development,” DaSilva said. “Lots of wind shear and dry air should help to keep development chances low for the rest of the month.”
The most common locations for June storms to develop are the northwestern Caribbean, eastern Gulf, and off the Southeastern U.S. coast, said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
Will first tropical storm of Atlantic season form in Gulf this week?
Latest conditions in the Atlantic basin 2 p.m. June 15:
Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late June 16 or June 17, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on June 17 into June 18.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, residents across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding.
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Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and tropical stormwatches or warnings could be required on June 16.
There are four tropical waves being watched by forecasters:
How accurate is the prediction for development of disturbance in Gulf?
The National Hurricane Center’s “outlooks tend to be accurate,” Truchelut said.
“Last year, a disturbance with a 10% seven-day forecast chance of development became a tropical depression or storm about 15% of the time.”
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” DaSilva said.
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“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What are predictions for 2026 hurricane season?
Here are some of the predictions released for this year’s hurricane season.
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A major hurricane is a storm that is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Could Florida be hit by a hurricane in 2026? See which counties have highest chance
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and how to pronounce them, are:
Florida weather radar for June 15, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of Atlantic hurricane season?
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Interactive map: See how many hurricanes, tropical storms have passed near your home
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What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated to provide new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://heraldtribune.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Chances increase for Tropical Storm Arthur. South Florida impact?
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK / Palm Beach Post
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK | USA TODAY Network
