ORLANDO — UCF’s men’s basketball team did not have to sweat out Selection Sunday. Seven years’ worth of March Madness waiting ended in a matter of minutes when the Knights (21-11) were unveiled as the No. 10 seed in the East Region.
Celebration quickly transformed to preparation when head coach Johnny Dawkins and his squad, projected to finish 14th in the Big 12’s preseason poll, learned they would square off with seventh-seeded UCLA (23-11) at 7:25 p.m. on March 20 at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia.
“You’re always excited to hear your name called,” Dawkins said. “It’s such an honor to be invited to this tournament; it’s the best tournament in sport, in my opinion. To have this opportunity is great.”
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No. 10 seeds have won nearly 39% of first-round games since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985. It has happened at least once in each tournament since 2010, aside from the COVID-canceled event in 2020.
New Mexico and Arkansas advanced to the second round as 10-seeds last March, taking down Marquette and Kansas, respectively.
Only once, however, has a 10-seed made the Final Four. Syracuse went on a stunning run in 2016 before losing to North Carolina in the national semifinals.
Can the Knights defy the odds? Or will they be one-and-done in the City of Brotherly Love?
Here are two reasons to believe in UCF, two more to be skeptical and predictions from The News-Journal’s Chris Boyle and Chris Vinel for its tournament destiny.
Why UCF basketball could make a March Madness run
1. Themus Fulks, Riley Kugel provide experienced guard play
Experienced guard play is always valuable come March Madness, and the Knights have a pair of starters in the backcourt who have combined to play 271 college games.
Fifth-year point guard Themus Fulks is 11th in Division I in assists per game (6.7), setting UCF’s single-season record with 214. Senior shooting guard Riley Kugel, an Orlando native, leads the team in scoring with a career-high 14.4 points per game.
“Guards have made some incredible runs throughout this tournament, and I love our guard play,” Dawkins said. “The main thing is that all our guys come ready and focused, take the game plan and try to execute whatever that will be for us.”
Both players suited up for NCAA Tournament games at previous schools; Fulks with Louisiana, and Kugel with Florida and Mississippi State. The Knights will need their dynamic duo to play to their full potential against a similarly talented, poised group of UCLA guards.
2. UCF can catch fire from behind the 3-point line
UCF shot the ball poorly in last week’s Big 12 tournament, making just six of its 45 attempts from 3-point range. Whether the controversial glass court or overinflated basketballs, as Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd pointed out following the semifinal round, played a part is up for debate.
However, the Knights have largely been an efficient perimeter shooting team through the course of the 2025-26 season, checking in just outside the top-50 nationally at 36.2%. Five players — Fulks, Kugel, Jordan Burks, Carmelo Pacheco and Chris Johnson — are hitting at 36% or better individually.
That gives UCF a puncher’s chance against anyone, though it was slightly less productive over the course of Big 12 play.
Overall, the Knights averaged 80.8 points per game while shooting 46.6% from the field. In their 18 conference games, those numbers dipped to 78.1 points per game on 45.9% shooting. The Knights tied for ninth in the Big 12 with 138 made 3-pointers against league opponents.
Why UCF basketball could make an early March Madness exit
1. Knights enter NCAA Tournament with 4 losses in last 5 games
UCF was largely viewed as an NCAA Tournament lock after its Feb. 24 upset of BYU in Provo, Utah. From there, the Knights sputtered down the stretch with four losses in their final five games, including home upsets at the hands of Baylor and Oklahoma State.
The Knights needed a fairly miraculous eight-point rally in the final two minutes to avoid a second-round Big 12 tournament exit against Cincinnati, a game they later won 66-65 in overtime. That comeback prevented the possibility of a First Four trip to Dayton, Ohio — or missing the Big Dance altogether — considering UCF earned the second-to-last at-large bye in the NCAA selection committee’s final rankings.
Injuries have played their part in the Knights’ late-season swoon. Kugel banged his knee on the scorer’s table in the OT period versus Cincinnati, starting forward Jamichael Stillwell has battled through an ankle problem since mid-February and starting center John Bol left the Arizona game with a chest injury.
2. UCF basketball does not have championship-level defense
Dawkins always wants his teams to hang their hat on defense, but that hasn’t really been the case since the Knights joined the Big 12. UCF ranks a pedestrian 11th in the league in points allowed (78.3) and opposing field goal percentage (45.7%) while breaking slightly above even in turnover margin (+0.1).
Jeremy Foumena’s return during the Big 12 tournament gives UCF a little more depth in the paint, but Stillwell and Bol have often found foul trouble. The Knights have also developed a bad habit of fouling 3-point shooters in the act, a troubling trend given UCLA’s efficiency beyond the arc.
The Knights will have to defend more like they did in the second half against Arizona when they held the No. 2 team in the land to 40% shooting and 2-of-8 from long range.
How far will UCF basketball go in the NCAA Men’s Tournament?
Chris Boyle: First round. Much of this prediction depends on UCLA’s health status ahead of Friday with forward Tyler Bilodeau (knee) and guard Donovan Dent (calf) nursing injuries sustained in the latter stages of the Big Ten tournament. Like UCF, the Bruins have one of the best distributors in the sport and a wealth of shooters that can catch fire from 3-point range. They come in on a hot streak as well, finishing 6-2 down the stretch with marquee victories over Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State.
Chris Vinel: First round. The Knights losing four out of their last five games doesn’t inspire much confidence. UCLA has flipped that, winning four of its last five. It also possesses NCAA Tournament experience after advancing to the second round a season ago.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Can UCF basketball make a run in March Madness bracket? Our prediction
Reporting by Chris Boyle, Daytona Beach News-Journal / The Daytona Beach News-Journal
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