The first week of July is already behind us, which puts us nine weeks away from the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Colorado State University downgraded its already optimistic outlook for the season on June 10, lowering its prediction from 13 named storms to 11. It is set to publish a new outlook on July 8.
Outside of Tropical Storm Arthur quickly forming and dissipating on June 17, the Atlantic basin has been quiet.
The season has so far generated just 0.4 accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which is about 88% below the historical average, according to the National Hurricane Center.
What is shaping up to be an exceedingly strong El Niño and a consistent stream of Saharan Dust from across the pond are the primary factors keeping tropical development at bay despite warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.
Forecasters don’t anticipate much action in the first half of July, but say activity could pick up in the second half. Here’s a look at where we are at in the Atlantic hurricane season and what Floridians can expect in July.
Current tropical conditions in the Atlantic basin
Conditions in the Atlantic basin look fairly typical in early July. Sea surface temperatures are near-normal or slightly above.
“Very warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, especially along the United States, can allow tropical storms and hurricanes to develop and rapidly intensify much closer to the U.S. coastline,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva.
“As a result, residents may have significantly less time to prepare than they would if storms formed near Africa and tracked across the Atlantic,” warns DaSilva.
He added, “It will be especially important to closely monitor every tropical wave this season. Some tropical waves may remain disorganized while crossing the Atlantic, only to develop and intensify once they reach the exceptionally warm waters near the United States.”
Warm water is a crucial resource for tropical cyclone development, but not the only one.
AccuWeather forecasters expect strong wind shear to blow across the Atlantic from the Pacific throughout the week. Wind shear describes shifting wind speeds and directions, which can disrupt a storm’s structure and prevent it from strengthening.
Meanwhile, plumes of Saharan Dust are spreading across the Atlantic, and are set to bring South Florida hot and dry weather by midweek.
Saharan Dust is another storm deterrent as it sits high up in the atmosphere and essentially robs moisture from the atmosphere, which could otherwise help ignite storm development.
Storms in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Tropical Storm Arthur was the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and remains the only one.
Arthur formed near the middle Texas coastline on the morning of June 17 from the convergence between an Atlantic tropical wave and the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina, which formed in the Pacific and crossed over Central America.
Arthur was a short-lived and poorly organized tropical storm that caused widespread flooding across Texas prior to its formation.
Louisiana received the biggest impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur. Rainfall totals in the state peaked at 29.06 inches over a 24-hour period, which caused severe flooding in several areas.
The National Weather Service confirmed that Arthur produced at least 14 tornadoes in Louisiana, with a few tracking into Mississippi.
When will the Atlantic see its next named storm?
Tropical activity picks up a bit in July, with the second named storm typically spinning up around July 17, according to the NHC.
What to expect from the Atlantic hurricane season in July?
Knock on wood, but don’t expect much tropical activity in the Atlantic during the first half of July.
Atlantic waters are warm enough for storm development, and there is no shortage of tropical waves moving in from the African coast, but harsh wind shear from El Niño conditions in the Pacific will make it tough for anything to get going.
Tropical activity could pick up in the Atlantic, according to AccuWeather, but we’re still too far out to gauge with any certainty.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Atlantic hurricane season check-in: What to expect in July
Reporting by Brandon Girod, Pensacola News Journal / Pensacola News Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Brandon Girod, Pensacola News Journal | USA TODAY Network
