The start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is just three days away, and forecasters are keeping a close watch on the tropics, especially the Gulf.
Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, west northwest of Tampa were 80.4 degrees early May 28, well above the average May temperature of 76.9 degrees, according to NOAA.
Warm water temperatures is one of the conditions that help storms to develop or strengthen.
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Tropical moisture, not a named storm, is contributing to all the rain expected across much of Florida over the coming days, but a tropical threat could be developing close to Florida, according to AccuWeather.
While predictions are for a “below-normal” season, forecasters continue to warn residents to prepare for the season and the earlier the better.
People often suffer from a false sense of lead time, thinking big storms are going to come across the Atlantic with plenty of time, but that’s not generally the case, said Ken Graham, National Weather Service director.
“Every Category 5 that’s made landfall in this country was a tropical storm or less at three days out. They rapidly intensify and get here quickly,” he said. “Preparedness early is absolutely key.”
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook early May 28 showed nothing in the Atlantic basin to be concerned about for the next two to seven days.
The tropical outlooks provide a quick look at what’s happening in the tropics, including any disturbances out there showing potential for development and tropical waves that may be present in the Atlantic basin.
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Florida residents shouldn’t be concerned about the three tropical waves out there.
“The first waves that come off Africa are usually too far south, and there’s often too much dry air and wind shear for them to develop,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email. “There’s no real concern with these early-season tropical waves.”
When does hurricane season start?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown to start of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Warm water could support tropical development close to Florida in early June
Warm Gulf and southwest Atlantic waters could support tropical development close to Florida in early June, according to AccuWeather.
Meteorologists said the highest chance for tropical development would occur during the middle to latter part of next week, after the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.
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“We will have to keep a close eye on the eastern Gulf or southwestern Atlantic for possible development during the first two weeks of June,” DaSilva said via email May 27.
“I think the chance is very low at this time and we currently don’t have an area explicitly highlighted at the current time, but this will be the area to watch. Sea-surface temperatures are warmer than average in these areas.
“If anything were to develop, it likely would move north or northeast. As a result, we will need to keep a close eye on Florida during the first two weeks of June.”
“The chance of development remains very low in the short term due to strong wind shear,” DaSilva said. “However, as the shear relaxes, conditions could become more favorable for an area of low pressure to develop.”
Water temperatures of at least 80 degrees mark the threshold needed for tropical development.
“Even if nothing develops, conditions through mid-June look wetter overall across Florida, which should help ease drought conditions,” DaSilva said.
If a storm were to form, where it develops would likely determine its track, according to AccuWeather.
“A storm that forms over the central or eastern Gulf would be more likely to track northeastward. One that develops over the southwestern Gulf (the Bay of Campeche) could move westward into Mexico.”
National Hurricane Center tracking no disturbances May 28
There were no disturbances listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. May 28.
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There are three tropical waves:
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” DaSilva said.
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“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What are National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlooks?
The National Hurricane Center started issuing daily tropical outlooks May 15. The outlooks are updated every six hours until the season ends Nov. 30.
Times are 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m.
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An outlook could be issued before or beyond those dates if something showing potential for development appears.
What are predictions for 2026 hurricane season?
Here are some of the predictions released for this year’s hurricane season.
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A major hurricane is a storm that is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
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What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and how to pronounce them, are:
Florida weather radar for May 28, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
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What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage regularly to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Contributing: Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY Network
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://tallahassee.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: As rains move into Florida, here’s why you should watch the Gulf
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
