The historical peak of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season falls on Wednesday, Sept. 10, but most wouldn’t know it given the usually slow start to September.
Forecasters predicted that the Atlantic was likely to see a slightly above-normal hurricane season this year. But with six named storms and just one hurricane, the season has started to fall behind historical averages.
During a typical Atlantic hurricane season, the basin would have seen around eight named storms by Sept. 9 and three hurricanes by Sept. 7, according to the National Hurricane Center. So, what’s responsible for the unusual lull in tropical cyclone activity in September and when will things pick back up?
Why is the Atlantic so quiet? Wind shear and Saharan dust
Hurricanes are complicated weather phenomena, but they can be broken down into the simple necessities needed to start and maintain development: Warm water for fuel and moisture to help facilitate organizing a tropical cyclone’s structure.
A large weather pattern known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), prevalent over the tropical Pacific, has created above-average vertical wind shear in the Atlantic. Abundant wind shear creates an environment that makes organization difficult, especially when combined with other mitigating factors.
Persistent dry air from Saharan dust plumes has played another large factor that has quelled the Atlantic.
“The dry air and Saharan dust should start to clear out of the Atlantic main development region this weekend,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Atmospheric conditions that are conducive to tropical development are expected to return in the second half of the month.”
The MJO weather pattern is expected to start shifting eastward over the next few weeks, which will likely result in lower-than-average vertical wind shear. Likewise, forecasters expect an increase in moisture in the air over the Atlantic, which will help disturbances organize and strengthen.
When will the Atlantic hurricane season pick up?
Forecasters warn that September’s lull is a great time to make sure your hurricane supplies are topped off.
AccuWeather forecasters say that the Gulf is like a giant bathtub, with water temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s.
“The ocean heat content, or the depth of warm ocean water in the Gulf and western Caribbean, is just below record high levels,” DaSilva said last week. “This is extremely concerning.”
Warm ocean temperatures give hurricanes the fuel needed to start development. When that heat penetrates deeper, past the sea surface, it allows those systems to quickly intensify into powerful hurricanes.
Rapid intensification has become somewhat of a hallmark of Gulf hurricanes in recent years, says AccuWeather, pointing to hurricanes Helene, Michael and Ian. Each of these storms spun up and strengthened into major hurricanes within a week.
“We expect several tropical waves from Africa to push off the western coast in the next few weeks, posing a risk for Atlantic hurricane development,” DaSilva warned.
AccuWeather forecasters are watching two areas where a cold front could spin up tropical development from Sept. 12 to Sept. 16.
Where are hurricanes more likely to hit in September?
September hurricanes historically hit states like eastern Florida, Louisiana, Texas and the Carolinas.
“AccuWeather hurricane experts continue to highlight northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as areas of higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” DaSilva said.
“Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands, are also at an increased risk of direct impacts for the rest of the season,” he added.
When does the Atlantic hurricane season end?
The Atlantic hurricane season will end on Nov. 30, 2025.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida?
No. The National Hurricane Center is predicting no tropical cyclone activity will occur over the next seven days.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
2025 Atlantic hurricane season named storms
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: 2025 Atlantic hurricane season peaks on Wednesday. Where are the hurricanes?
Reporting by Brandon Girod, Pensacola News Journal / Pensacola News Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
