The votes have been cast, the totals have been tallied and it’s almost time to hear those magical words: “And the Oscar goes to…”
The 98th annual Academy Awards air Sunday, March 15, which, for cinephiles like me, marks the biggest day of the year. An insanely talented and deserving crop of nominees was announced in January, including a record-breaking 16 nominations for “Sinners” and so many exciting first-timers (Delroy Lindo, Jacob Elordi, Rose Byrne, Renate Reinsve and Michael B. Jordan, to name just a few).
But it’s also been a very long awards season (remember the days when the Oscars were in February?) filled with controversies and moments we’d like to forget, like the horribly managed BAFTAs slur incident, pretty much everything that Timothée Chalamet said and everyone turning on Jessie Buckley because of her opinions on cats. And because the season has been drawn out so long, people have started going mad trying to predict who is going to win, including the big question of the night: “One Battle After Another” or “Sinners” for best picture?
As much as I want to celebrate everyone, there can only be one winner in the 24 categories (the inaugural best casting Oscar will be given out this year). Here are my predictions for some of the top Oscars races, which have gotten a bit harder to predict as of late.
Best picture is between One Battle After Another and Sinners
Will win: “One Battle After Another”
Could win: “Sinners”
It all comes down to this. “One Battle After Another” was declared the early frontrunner after its release in September, and for the most part, it’s won all of the top prizes at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTAs and Producers Guild of America ceremonies. Is that momentum enough to carry it over the finish line, or is “Sinners” picking up steam, especially following its ensemble win at the Actor Awards? There’s no denying there’s love and passion for the film with its massive nomination haul, so it really will come down to how voters rank the films on a preferential ballot. I’m currently sticking with “One Battle,” but just know that I’m holding my breath until the envelope is read.
Jessie Buckley dominates best actress category
Will win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Could win: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Among the four acting categories, this is the easiest one to predict. Buckley has swept this whole season with her emotional performance as a grieving mother, so I have no reason to doubt her at this point. With Critics Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA and Actor awards already under her belt, she’ll have to make room on her mantle for her shiny gold Oscar. Her closest competitor in this category is Rose Byrne, who won a Golden Globe for her maternal nightmare film “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” Although something tells me some might be turned off by the movie’s intense nature.
Best actor is between Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet
Will win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Could win: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
At the start of the season, I felt fairly confident in Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar chances, especially with early Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins. But it appears as though the tide has shifted in Michael B. Jordan’s favor. When he won at the Actor Awards for his dual performance as twins Smoke and Stack in “Sinners,” the room gave him a big standing ovation and it looked like there was a lot of love for him. And when you compare their two films, Jordan is in a potential best picture winner, so that also carries a bit of weight here. Chalamet is clearly chasing the Oscar glory (this is his third nomination), and even if it doesn’t go his way again, he still delivered a fantastic performance as a ping pong extraordinaire in “Marty Supreme.”
Best supporting actress is a three-way battle
Will win: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Could win: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another,” or Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
It’s usually the best actress race that has me stressed out with my predictions, but this year it’s the best supporting actress category. This is a really hard one to predict because three contenders have all won at different precursors. Teyana Taylor took home the Golden Globe for her fierce revolutionary performance in “One Battle After Another,” and she’s been my preferred winner since the start. Then Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA for her soulful portrayal in “Sinners,” and that award is often a strong indictor for the Oscars. Most recently, however, Amy Madigan won at the Actor Awards for her iconic Aunt Gladys role in “Weapons,” and she also picked up a Critics Choice Award in January. It’s really anyone’s race at this point, but I may be leaning more toward Madigan at this point. She’s a veteran actor who is finally getting recognized for her work, and the Academy loves to reward those who are “overdue.”
Sean Penn poised to win best supporting actor
Will win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Could win: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value,” or Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
This was another category that was a bit up in the air in the early part of the season. Jacob Elordi won the Critics Choice Award, and then Stellan Skarsgård won the Golden Globe. However, Sean Penn snagged a BAFTA and Actor Award most recently, so I think that wraps up this race. Some may be peeved that he would have three Oscars, but there’s no denying his powerhouse performance as the despicable Col. Lockjaw in “One Battle.” But if there is an upset, maybe there’s a chance that Skarsgård takes it, or even first-time nominee Delroy Lindo if the love for “Sinners” is strong.
It is finally Paul Thomas Anderson’s year for best director?
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Could win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Paul Thomas Anders has been nominated for 14 Academy Awards throughout his career, and he has yet to win one. Well, that all changes this year. He’s a lock to win the best adapted screenplay prize, and when it comes to best director, it’s his time to shine. He’s picked up several wins this season already, including at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTAs and Directors Guild of America, so I’m confident in his chances. If there is an upset, it’s Ryan Coogler for “Sinners.”
Where to watch the Oscars 2026
The awards ceremony is scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. Sunday on ABC and the ABC app or streaming live on Hulu and via FuboTV.
Who is hosting the Oscars 2026
Conan O’Brien is hosting the 98th Academy Awards.
Ema Sasic covers entertainment and health in the Coachella Valley. Reach her at ema.sasic@desertsun.com or on Twitter @ema_sasic.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Where to watch Oscars 2026, and who we predict will win big
Reporting by Ema Sasic, Palm Springs Desert Sun / Palm Springs Desert Sun
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