A wave of late‑week polls underscores how unsettled California’s gubernatorial race remains, even as the June primary is just days away.
Democrat Xavier Becerra is leading the pack, holding 25% among likely voters, according to the most recent survey — a Berkeley IGS poll — released Friday, May 29.
Republican Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer are neck and neck, polling at 21% and 19%, respectively, according to the poll that sampled more than 5,000 voters between May 19 and May 24 with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
Other candidates trail: Republican Chad Bianco holds 11%, and Democrat Katie Porter holds 7%. The remaining candidates — Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Tony Thurmond — each capture 4% or less of voter support. Meanwhile, 7% of voters remain undecided.
Becerra’s voter support increased fivefold from a Berkeley IGS poll released in early March, before Eric Swalwell exited the race amid sexual assault allegations. Hilton and Steyer also showed momentum, with Hilton up 4 percentage points and Steyer up 9 points. The remaining candidates — with the exception of Mahan, who held steady at 4%, and Thurmond, at 1% — lost voter traction.
“This has been a wide-open and very unusual race. While voter preferences have clarified some since our last poll, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty about which of the top three candidates will make the November ballot,” IGS co-director Eric Schickler said in a news release. “Much now depends on turnout and whether those who prefer one of the lower polling candidates end up tilting toward one of the polling leaders.”
Berkeley IGS survey results compared to other recent polls
The Berkeley IGS survey closely aligns with three other gubernatorial polls released a day earlier, all showing a tight race between Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer.
A Public Policy Polling sponsored by Steyer found him with a slight lead at 21%, and Hilton and Becerra within 2 percentage points of one another, at 20% and 18%, respectively.
Becerra led in two other polls — one by Kreate Strategies and another by the Public Policy Institute of California — while Hilton and Steyer trailed closely, separated by just 5 to 6 percentage points in both surveys.
While the California Democratic Party initially worried about being locked out of November’s general election, much of that anxiety has waned. And now, it seems, the tables may have turned, with there being a chance of two Democrats securing spots on the general election ballot.
In a Tuesday, May 26, post on X, Hilton encouraged voters not to cast a ballot for his Republican counterpart.
“DON’T SPLIT THE VOTE! There will be NO CHANCE for change if it’s two Democrats in the top 2,” Hilton wrote in a Tuesday, May 26, post on X. “Most polls have me ahead, but some show a 3-way tie. Chad Bianco can’t make it: a vote for Bianco is a vote for two Democrats. The ONLY way to avoid that is to Vote Steve Hilton.”
Polls’ other findings
In the Public Policy Institute of California survey, 45% of likely voters said they believe the state budget is a big problem. Most identified “health and human services and public education as their preferred areas for state spending, the institute said.
Half of voters named the cost of living, inflation, and housing costs and availability as the most important issues currently facing California, according to the survey.
When asked in the Berkeley IGS poll which issues mattered most to them in choosing a gubernatorial candidate, two issues topped the list: defending democracy and protecting voting rights (80%) and reducing the cost of living in California (74%).
The Kreate Strategies poll found that voter sentiment remains negative, with 64% saying the Golden State is headed in the wrong direction and just over half disapproving of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s job performance.
Who’s running for California governor?
In California, there is a top-two primary system in which all candidates are listed on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters move on to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation, meaning there is the potential for two candidates from the same party to face off in the general election.
The top gubernatorial candidates include:
What’s next for June primary?
County election officials had a deadline of Monday, May 4, to mail vote-by-mail ballots to registered voters. Ballot drop-off locations opened the following day.
Though the deadline to register to vote in the June primary has passed, Californians can still opt for same-day voter registration, also known as conditional voter registration.
Voting centers opened for Voter’s Choice Act counties for early in-person voting on Saturday, May 23.
Primary Election Day is Tuesday, June 2. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Polls show California governor race still volatile days out from primary
Reporting by Daniella Segura, USA TODAY NETWORK / Palm Springs Desert Sun
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
