California is likely to see normal precipitation and hotter-than-average temperatures over the summer months, from June to August, according to the National Weather Service’s recently released long-range forecast.
NWS meteorologists issued their national precipitation and temperature outlook for June through August on April 16, calling for “equal chances” for above- or below-normal weather.
Here are the seasonal maps showing probable conditions across the U.S. for summer 2026.
What does ‘equal chances’ mean?
An “equal chances” forecast does not mean conditions will be exactly average everywhere. Instead, it reflects uncertainty in large-scale climate patterns, according to the National Weather Service.
“Sometimes an ‘equal chances’ forecast means there are no strong influences in the climate system that favor one outcome over another,” NOAA forecasters explain. “Other times it means there are competing influences, and forecasters can’t say which is more likely to win out.”
In practical terms, that means California could still see heat waves, cool spells or short bursts of heavy rain, but no persistent statewide trend is favored months in advance.
How much rain does the National Weather Service forecast for California this summer?
California has “equal chances” to see above-, near- or below-average chances for rain this summer.
“Sometimes an ‘equal chances’ forecast means that there are no strong influences in the climate system that would favor one outcome over another, so forecasters default to the average climatological frequency (33.3% chance each). Other times it means that there are competing influences, and forecasters can’t say which is more likely to win out,” the NWS said.
Will it be a hot summer in California?
California is forecast to see “leaning above normal chances” for above-average temperatures.
That does not rule out extreme heat events — which are common in California summers — particularly in the Central Valley, inland Southern California and desert regions. Seasonal outlooks focus on three-month averages, not day-to-day or weeklong extremes.
Why long-range forecasts are limited
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks are based on global climate patterns, including ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions, rather than local weather models. As a result, confidence levels tend to be lower when El Niño or La Niña signals are weak or competing, leading to more “equal chances” forecasts.
Forecasters emphasize that these forecasts are meant to provide big-picture guidance, not precise local predictions.
What the summer outlook means for different parts of California
While NOAA’s seasonal forecast looks at statewide patterns, summer weather can play out very differently depending on where you live. For most of California, the forecast calls for a slight chance of hotter-than-normal. Temperatures along the California-Nevada border, including in the Lake Tahoe area, are forecast to be hotter than normal.
Southern California
Much of Southern California — including coastal areas and inland valleys — falls under “leaning above chances” for above-average temperatures this summer, according to the Climate Prediction Center. That points to a slightly hotter summer overall, with short-lived heat waves likely, especially inland. Rainfall is typically minimal during summer months regardless of the outlook.
Bay Area
The Bay Area also falls under “leaning above chances” for above-average temperatures this summer. That suggests typical summer patterns, including cooler conditions near the coast and warmer inland temperatures during heat events. Seasonal outlooks do not rule out brief hot spells but show no strong indication of a prolonged heat-dominated summer across the region.
Central Valley
In the Central Valley, where summer heat is routine, NOAA’s outlook “leans above chances” for above-average temperatures this summer. Forecasters stress that extreme heat days are likely because seasonal outlooks reflect three‑month averages, not individual heat waves. Precipitation chances remain near zero during the summer regardless of category.
Deserts and inland Southern California
California’s desert regions are also under a “leaning above chances” for above-average temperatures this summer, meaning there is a slight signal for a hotter‑than‑normal summer overall. The forecast does not specifically predict the timing or strength of late‑summer monsoonal moisture, which can bring isolated storms and higher humidity to parts of the desert Southwest.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: California summer forecast points to hotter weather with average rain
Reporting by Sarah Moore and James Ward, USA TODAY NETWORK / Palm Springs Desert Sun
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
