If California’s 2026 gubernatorial race has had an underlying theme, it’s unpredictability.
From political scandals and shakeups to heated debates, it has rarely followed a script. And now, even with less than a week until Election Day, the race remains volatile.
Ahead of the June primary, here are five things to know about the governor’s race.
A wide field of gubernatorial candidates
With Gov. Gavin Newsom termed out and unable to seek reelection, a wide array of candidates is vying for the governor’s seat.
The top gubernatorial candidates include:
Other notable Democratic candidates include Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Tony Thurmond. An additional 51 candidates are also running for governor. A list of candidates and their titles can be found here.
The ‘top-two’ (aka jungle) primary leads to fears of party lockout
In California, there is a top-two primary system in which all candidates are listed on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters move on to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation, meaning there is the potential for two candidates from the same party to face off in the general election.
In closed primaries, however, voters are restricted to voting for candidates of the same party, Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, said in an April interview. So, unlike the top-two primary system, “whoever emerges out of that field is guaranteed a spot on the November ballot.”
“What that means is that no party has to worry about being locked out,” Kousser said. “They’re fine to have an open competition between many candidates, and that’s not going to cost them the chance at an election, at a November victory.”
In the 2026 gubernatorial race, though, a major theme has been Democrats’ worry of being locked out of the general election, as two prominent Republican candidates were, for a short period, leading the pack while a cluster of Democrats trailed. As worries mounted, Democratic party leaders commissioned a series of polls meant to assess the viability of the wide field of gubernatorial candidates and hinted that candidates with less momentum should drop from the race.
However, a wave of political shakeups followed, ultimately upending the race’s dynamics.
Pivotal moments of California’s gubernatorial race upended race’s dynamics
Among the big moments in the governor’s race was President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton in early April.
“He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell,” Trump said in a Truth Social post, adding that Newsom and Democrats “have done an absolutely horrendous job.”
At the time, political data expert Rob Pyers in a post on X said that Trump’s endorsement of Hilton may eliminate the possibility of a Republican facing off against another Republican in the November election.
“Trump’s endorsement of Steve Hilton likely frees up tens of millions of dollars for Democratic groups who would have otherwise had to spend heavily to elevate one of the two leading GOP gubernatorial candidates to avoid a Democratic lockout,” Pyers said.
Days after the President’s endorsement, in an unexpected turn of events, Eric Swalwell dropped from the California governor’s race after allegations of sexual assault surfaced.
The San Francisco Chronicle first published allegations of sexual assault from a former staffer against Swalwell, the leading Democratic candidate in the governor’s race, on Friday, April 10. CNN followed with sexual assault allegations from the same staffer and three other women who alleged other forms of sexual misconduct.
Swalwell denied the allegations in a social media video, calling the claims politically motivated. Days later, however, Swalwell announced plans to drop out of the race but continued to refute the allegations.
“To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past,” Swalwell wrote in a post on X. “I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”
Soon after, Swalwell announced his plans to resign from Congress.
A little more than a week after Swalwell departed from the race, Betty Yee, a former California State Controller, also announced plans to end her bid for governor.
Yee said she and her team “felt the chill of the polling,” alluding to her low voter support in recent surveys.
“It was becoming clear that the donors were not going to be there,” Yee said. “Even some of my former supporters just felt like they needed to move on as well.”
Yee ultimately gave her endorsement to Steyer, whose own campaign contributions and spending is making history.
As of Monday, May 26, Steyer had contributed a record-breaking $212 million to his own campaign, California Secretary of State records show, The Los Angeles Times reported. He has spent more than $195 million on ads for broadcast TV, cable, and radio, making it the most expensive political advertising campaign in the country this year, according to data compiled by advertising tracker AdImpact, the Associated Press reported.
Who has momentum? What polls show
When the first EVITARUS poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party was released on March 24, it showed Republicans Hilton and Bianco leading, with a cluster of Democrats trailing. Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, said the results were a “clear reminder of an undeniable fact – all candidates must honestly assess their viable path to win.”
The pair of Republican candidates led in two additional polls released in two-week increments. After Democrat Eric Swalwell departed from the race amid sexual assault allegations, however, Becerra began to surge in subsequent EVITARUS polls, eventually surprising Bianco and gaining seven times the voter support from the initial survey in March. Steyer also saw gains among voters, jumping 5 percentage points from the first survey in March, putting him ahead of Bianco.
“We are clearly in a different place today than we were two months ago. Some candidates are surging and consolidating, others are following behind,” Hicks said of the final EVITARUS poll released before the June primary.
Overall, in recent weeks, Hilton has consistently led in polls, either holding the top spot or running neck and neck with Becerra or Steyer.
“Most polls have me ahead but some show a 3-way tie. Chad Bianco can’t make it: a vote for Bianco is a vote for two Democrats,” Hilton wrote in a Monday post on X. “The ONLY way to avoid that is to Vote Steve Hilton.”
Cost of living and affordability are dominant themes of gubernatorial race
Cost of living and affordability have been dominant themes throughout the gubernatorial race. In polls, voters often identified the cost of living as the top issue facing the Golden State. Surveys also found that a majority of voters believe affordability is critical to their choice of candidate.
During a series of recent debates, some of which became “a bit of a mess,” the top candidates delved into the state’s cost-of-living issue, touching on topics of housing costs, gas prices, and everyday expenses. All candidates seem to agree that, to ease the cost of living in the state, more homes need to be built in California. Where they differ on the issue of the state’s cost of living, though, is in why it’s so high and how to tackle it.
Both Hilton and Bianco often point to the state’s “one-party rule” as the underlying reason the state’s cost of living leads the nation. The pair insist on easing or eliminating “Democratic policies” to bring down the cost of living.
The Democratic candidates, on the other hand, argue that the cost of living is not the result of any one party but rather of structural issues that need to be remedied. How they would remedy those structural issues varies. Becerra, for instance, argues for better implementation of existing government policies, while Steyer often asserts that corporations are to blame for passing high costs on to customers.
What’s next for June primary?
County election officials had a deadline of Monday, May 4, to mail vote-by-mail ballots to registered voters. Ballot drop-off locations opened the following day.
Though the deadline to register to vote in the June primary has passed, Californians can still opt for same-day voter registration, also known as conditional voter registration.
Voting centers opened for Voter’s Choice Act counties for early in-person voting on Saturday, May 23.
Primary Election Day is Tuesday, June 2. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: California governor race shifting fast: What voters should know
Reporting by Daniella Segura, USA TODAY NETWORK / Palm Springs Desert Sun
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
