Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s abrupt departure from the race to become Michigan’s next governor is almost certainly a boost to Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s Democratic bid, political analysts say.
Duggan, who was seeking to upend state political norms by running as an independent candidate, said he no longer saw a path to victory and decided to end his run Thursday, May 21. He couldn’t continue to ask donors for money and campaign volunteers for their time in good conscience as his poll numbers slipped, he told reporters.
Mike Duggan exit ‘good news for Jocelyn Benson’
The three-term mayor’s presence in the race was considered an issue for Benson — Duggan had spent decades as a Democrat and he spent his time on the trail directly appealing to voters disillusioned by the two-party system. Duggan also had strong name recognition in metro Detroit, the state’s largest source of Democratic votes in statewide elections. Voters in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties backing Duggan would have hurt Benson’s chances of the plurality needed to win a three-way race.
“It’s natural to think that he would draw primarily from the Democratic side, although he clearly was trying to run in the middle,” said Jonathan Hanson, a former Congressional staffer and professor of political science at the University of Michigan. “And one would think that with him dropping out of the race, this is clearly good news for Jocelyn Benson, who would look to consolidate Democratic voters and probably Democratic-leaning independent voters as well.”
Democrats coalescing around Trump opposition
Duggan noted the political dial was turning toward the Democrats — President Donald Trump faces low approval ratings as frustration lingers over economic inflation and the fallout of the U.S. war in Iran. Polling published by the Glengariff Group May 12 found Duggan trailing Benson and Republican contenders U.S. Rep. John James, R-Shelby Township, and businessman Perry Johnson in match-ups.
“We’re standing here today where I don’t think there is a path forward. And I never ran to be a spoiler,” Duggan said May 21.
Michigan’s gubernatorial primary is Aug. 4
Benson still has to get through a primary race against Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, although she carries a sizable edge over Swanson in fundraising and name recognition. Unless the Democratic primary suddenly and unexpectedly becomes a bruising affair, Benson’s campaign can gear up for the November election.
“I welcome Mayor Duggan’s ideas, his supporters, and everyone who believes Michigan’s future is bigger than division — and that it can be a place where anyone can afford to live, work, and thrive,” Benson said in a statement after Duggan’s announcement. Duggan said he wouldn’t endorse in the governor’s race, at least before the August primary.
Meanwhile, Republicans appeared to be headed toward a much more competitive primary contest. A May 11 poll published by the Michigan Information and Research Service and Mitchell Research found James polling at 32%, followed by Johnson at 23% and former Attorney General Mike Cox at 19%. Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, R-Porter Township, polled at 7%.
“My initial inclination would be that this helps Benson more than it helps a Republican,” said John Lindstrom, retired publisher of Gongwer Michigan and a longtime Lansing press corps member. Lindstrom (who also is a contributing columnist for the Detroit Free Press). He noted that Trump is so politically polarizing that it’s hard for any candidate to appeal to a large enough chunk of voters by running in the middle.
GOP can no longer rely on Duggan as spoiler
In typical midterm years, the party opposite control of the White House and Congress has historically fared well in elections. Democrats have also been outpacing Republican candidates in special elections around the country since Trump’s second election to the White House in 2024, including earlier this month when Democrat Chedrick Greene won a special election for a Michigan Senate seat by 19 percentage points.
Republicans may have been hopeful that Duggan’s presence in the race softened the margins needed to win back the governor’s office in Michigan. In a head-to-head matchup, Democrats have the advantage of not having to deal with a knock-down, drag-out primary.
“I do think whoever the Republican nominee will be at the end of this process is going to face a much more challenging situation than they had before,” Hanson said.
Still, Republicans will push heavily for the governor’s office. Michigan Republican Party Chair Jim Runestad said in a statement, “Mike Duggan’s exit is no surprise — voters saw through a lifelong Democrat masquerading as an independent. Now attention turns to Jocelyn Benson, who still hasn’t answered serious ethical questions, while Republicans will nominate a proven leader focused on Michigan families.”
You can reach Arpan Lobo at alobo@freepress.com
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: What Mike Duggan’s exit means for Michigan’s governor race
Reporting by Arpan Lobo, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
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