What happens in China does not stay in China; it impacts us all. This thought was front and center as President Donald Trump held a summit with President Xi in Beijing last week.
The summit was made exponentially more complicated by Trump snatching Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, and the U.S initiating a “war of choice” with Iran, resulting in the subsequent shutting of the Strait of Hormuz, where a steady and until now reliable source of China’s oil passes.
To say we are at pivotal moment for U.S.-China relations where action or inaction will shape the direction of trade, technology, global security, economy and geopolitical stability for the U.S., China and all of humanity would be an understatement. The last thing either side needs now is greater instability.
What the world witnessed was a transactional meeting with each side pulling chips off the table and both sides walking off with at best a commitment to continue meeting.
Going forward our respective leaders need to lean on my 7-C’s framework to help manage this delicate bilateral relationship which is critical to the world:
• Communication (Open, high-level and subnational channels)
• Collaboration (On global issues like health and climate)
• Cooperation (To seek win-win solutions)
• Coordination (On regional and global issues)
• Competition (Managed, constructive competition)
• Contextual Understanding (Grasping the history and perspectives of both nations)
• Avoiding confrontation, conflict and casualties
While the world waited to see a grand bargain, a “Nixon goes to China” moment between the only two super powers, they settled for seeing the relationship stabilized that is stressed by regional conflicts, a rising China and trade disputes.
This was the first face-to-face meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during Trump’s second term and the first such meeting for a sitting American president in eight years. The two day, heavily scripted meeting was stuffed with pomp and platitudes for both domestic markets.
China watchers did not predict a grand bargain on the major bilateral and geopolitical issues of consequence, and were not disappointed. The familiar and long standing areas were skirted around trade and tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, Taiwan and security, technology controls and economic markets.
It was expected we would see narrow, limited, pragmatic token concession agreements on each of these topics— yet Trump came home basically empty handed.
Xi did paint in bright color a “red line” on Taiwan saying, Taiwan is “the most important issue in China-U.S. relations”. During their Beijing summit, Xi warned that if the issue is mishandled, the two nations could face “clashes and even conflicts”. Xi firmly declared Taiwan an inseparable part of China and stated that the island’s sovereignty is non-negotiable. Ouch!
There was hope for a potential for “rare earth-tariff swap” where China guarantees the flow of critical minerals and further promises to curtail fentanyl flows in exchange for significant relaxation of their importing high-end computer chips. Crickets.
The mutual distrust continues to tie the hands of any meaningful long-term rapprochement on long held nationalistic beliefs and positions. Brookings calls the US China relations in a “state of fragile stability” following a period of turmoil in the first year of Trump’s second term.
Earlier this year, Xi using familiar Chinese jargon said that he hopes to make 2026 a year where the two countries “advance toward mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation.”
He also took a jab at Trump in his opening remarks. Xi poked, “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” The world will hear more about the “Thucydides Trap” going forward. The Thucydides Trap is a concept popularized by American political scientist Graham Allison that posits that when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power, the resulting fear and competition often lead to conflict and war.
This would truly shake the world.
What we witnessed was incremental “win-win” communication that maintains near-term stability as each side jockeys for strategic dominance moving forward.
Watch for U. S. to wink as China licks its chop sticks to absorb Taiwan under its fold following Sun Tzu strategy in The Art of War, “to win the battle without firing a shot.” Xi will gladly welcome a stronger statement from Trump opposing Taiwan’s independence.
Many in Congress, on both sides of the political aisle worry there was a less than firm stance on our continued support for Taiwan. There is fear that Trump may have offered to soften U.S. support or arms sales to Taiwan in exchange for Xi using China’s significant leverage to force Iran into a permanent ceasefire, hence giving Trump an out of the quagmire he created in his “war of choice” with Iran.
Trump danced around calling China and the U.S. the “G-2”. He seemed to toy with a declaration formally recognizing the U.S. and China as ” great equal powers” with a shared vision and common agenda for global stability.
There appeared to be little talk about the harsh China tariffs. There was speculation that Trump may eliminate the remaining 10% fentanyl-related tariffs and pause a threatened 50% tariff hike. Stay tuned.
Ultimately, the long-awaited summit was a heavily scripted affair designed to prevent further hostile escalation and manage a regional, and God forbid, global conflict, providing both leaders with opportunities to play to their respective domestic audience.
The good news is dialogue is taking place at the highest levels with Xi accepting an invitation by Trump to meet at the White House on September 24.
The world needs to continue to root for short-term and long-term strategic agreements that help the people of the U.S., China and all of humanity. Anything less would be a colossal failure for all.
Tom Watkins is an expert on U.S.–China relations. He previously served as Deputy Chief of Staff to former Gov. James Blanchard, State Mental Health Director, State Superintendent of Schools, and as president and CEO of the Economic Council of Palm Beach County, Fla.
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Trump came home from China empty-handed | Opinion
Reporting by Tom Watkins / The Detroit News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
