New York — The cold, hard truth is, you are what your record says you are.
And the Tigers’ record entering play Monday, 35-49, says they are nine games back in the Central Division and way, way out of playoff contention. They need to go 46-32 the rest of the way to finish at .500.
But this in also true:
The Tigers’ run differential, minus-3, is better than every team in the division except for the White Sox. The Guardians, who are tied at the top with the White Sox, have nine more wins and a worse run differential (minus-8). The Twins have five more wins than the Tigers with a minus-30 run differential.
There are only four teams in the American League with a positive run differential.
So, what do we make of that? Is that encouraging that the margin is paper thin. Or discouraging, given the Tigers have lost 13 games when they’ve led entering the seventh inning and endured 31 losses by two runs or less.
Both are the most in baseball.
“It’s a little bit of both,” manager AJ Hinch said. “I think it tells a different story than what our actual results are. We’ve had some good stretches and we’ve had some close losses. But then you set in the reality of where we are and some of the difficulty we’ve had getting to the finish line in games and this is what it is.”
The difference between where the Tigers are and where they feel they ought to be can be traced to the 11-31 record in two-run games, the 9-16 record in one-run games, the 1-6 record in extra-inning games.
Is that indicative of a team that plays just good enough to lose? Or is it a narrative that can quickly flip.
“I can sit here and say it’s encouraging,” lefty ace Tarik Skubal said. “We’re playing really tight baseball games and we know what kind of team we are. But at the end of the day, results matter. Winning games matters. Sometimes I feel like we’ve found our way to lose baseball games just as much as we’ve found a way to not lose baseball games.
“And a lot of that is self-inflicted. I can say that because I lost us a couple of game here recently.”
The Tigers have lost two of the three games Skubal has started since coming back from arthroscopic elbow surgery. But it would be folly to pin those on him alone.
“It’s encouraging for me, personally, because I feel like I’m throwing the ball great,” he said. “The stuff coming out of my hand is probably the best it’s ever been in my career. I can truly, honestly say that. But results matter and I haven’t been good enough.
“Collectively, as a team, we haven’t been good enough for 27 outs.”
It speaks to Skubal’s initial point: The Tigers have more often found a way to lose close games than win them.
“What (the run differential) says is, we’re really good baseball team,” he said. “I still believe in our guys. I want to go to war with these guys every single day. We’re a really good team and our record doesn’t reflect that by any means. And it’s a results-based business.”
Hinch was asked if he thought the run differential was enough to give the team the full month of July, ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline, to make a push.
“That’s not a question for me,” he said, meaning decisions on when or if to sell will be president Scott Harris’ call. “But we really believe we can put together a really good stretch of games … We’ve stayed very consistent with the fact that we have a good team and we feel like there’s been winnable games that were there for us.
“We need to continue to push in that direction and get some positive results to get closer to being back in it.”
Just start stacking wins, starting now.
“I feel like we’ve got to the end of September,” outfielder Matt Vierling said. “That’s just my opinion. And I only say that because that’s how it felt here a couple of years ago. The run differential and all of that, it just shows that we are right there. We’re not that far off.
“We just need to stay in the fight.”
Tigers at Yankees
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. Tuesday, Yankee Stadium, New York
TV/radio: Detroit Sports Net/97.1 FM
Scouting report
LHP Tarik Skubal (3-4, 3.32), Tigers: This will be his fourth start back after surgery, and he’s gotten sharper and stronger with each passing start. The oddity has been the home run balls. He’s given up six in those three starts, three against the Yankees at Comerica last week, two to Paul Goldschmidt. The other oddity, the Tigers lost two of those three starts.
RHP Cam Schlittler (8-4, 1.62), Yankees: If they gave out half-season awards, he’d been your American League Cy Young winner. Opponents are hitting .197 and slugging .299 against him. His four-seam fastball and sinker are electric (97.8 mph), with the four-seamer holding hitters to a .178 average with a 33.8% whiff rate. He also throws a 94-mph cutter, with sliders to righties and curveballs to lefties. In his last four starts, he’s allowed two runs in 23.2 innings with 34 strikeouts and seven walks.
Chris.McCosky@detroitnews.com
@cmccosky
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Tigers’ slim run differential: Encouraging, discouraging or irrelevant?
Reporting by Chris McCosky, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Chris McCosky, The Detroit News | USA TODAY Network
