U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, of Birmingham, appears to have captured the lead in the race for the Democratic nomination to replace U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, according to an average of recent polls followed by the Free Press.
Two recent polls, including one by the Detroit News/WDIV-TV (Channel 4) published on Tuesday, July 14, show Stevens with a lead over former Wayne County and Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed, of Ann Arbor, who previously had been in the lead.
As of the morning of Wednesday, July 15, the RealClearPolling,com average of recent polls in the race shows Stevens ahead of El-Sayed 45%-41% with less than two weeks to go until the Aug. 4 Democratic primary for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat.
That change suggests the race has been altered dramatically in recent weeks as a third candidate, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, of Royal Oak, dropped out of the race and outside supporters of Stevens dropped millions in advertising on her behalf. But even as Stevens, who has support from establishment Democrats, has picked up an endorsement from Peters, it continues to suggest that El-Sayed, who is running as a progressive candidate with the backing of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, of Vermont, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, of New York, and U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, of Detroit, could still score an upset.
The Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll showed Stevens ahead of El-Sayed 48%-41%, with about 10% undecided but nearly tied when looking at respondents who were definite about their vote. Performed by the Glengariff Group, the live-operator poll surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters from July 8-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The RealClearPolling.com average also includes a poll done July 6-7 by Tavern Research in Chicago which showed Stevens ahead 41%-38% with the rest either undecided or still favoring McMorrow. That poll involved an online sample of more than 2,200 likely primary voters reached by text and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Individual polls are a snapshot in time of an electorate based on statistics, and often rely on different methodologies. A polling average is often used by media organizations to show larger trends by bringing those results together.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, of White Lake, who is unopposed in the GOP primary on Aug. 4.
Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on X @tsspangler.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Stevens or El-Sayed? Latest polls show who leads in US Senate primary
Reporting by Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
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By Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press | USA TODAY Network
