• What: 3-seed Michigan State vs. 6-seed Louisville, NCAA tournament second round
• When: 2:45 p.m. Saturday
• Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 203
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 26-7 overall, finishing second in the Big Ten at 15-5, before falling in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. The Spartans are ranked No. 11 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches polls. The Spartans are No. 11 in the NET rankings and No. 9 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Louisville is 24-10 overall, having finished 11-7 in the ACC regular season. The Cardinals are ranked No. 24 in both the major polls, while being No. 17 in the NET rankings and ranked No. 20 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -4
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 764-309 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Louisville — Pat Kelsey is 312-140 in his 14th season as a head coach, including 51-18 in his second season with the Cardinals.
• Series: MSU is 6-6 against Louisville all-time, winning the most recent matchup on Dec. 1, 2021 at Breslin Center. The series also includes two elite eight NCAA tournament wins by the Spartans, in 2015 and 2009.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 11.0
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.6
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.7
SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 5.9
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.4
Louisville
C (53) Vangelis Zougris (6-8) 2.4
F (1) J’Vonne Hadley (6-7) 11.8
G (14) Adrian Wooley (6-4) 8.4
G (10) Isaac McNeely (6-4) 11.0
G (3) Ryan Conwell (6-4) 18.7
• MSU update: The Spartans enter the Round of 32 after a sharp and focused first-round win against an overmatched North Dakota State team. MSU has reached at least the second round in seven of its last eight NCAA tournaments and the Sweet 16 three times during that stretch. The Spartans’ Kenpom rankings — No. 23 in offensive efficiency and No. 13 in defense — now put them in a stratosphere where winning a national championship wouldn’t be a statistical anomaly. The Spartans’ 26 assists in their win Thursday were a program NCAA tournament record.
MORE: Couch: Michigan State’s Carson Cooper has become the player he always knew he needed to be
• Louisville update: The Cardinals will again be without freshman star Mikel Brown, their point guard and primary ball-handler who has missed the last five games with a back injury he’s been dealing with for a while. Without him, Louisville hung on to beat 11-seed South Florida on Thursday — but barely. The Cardinals nearly relinquished a 23-point second-half lead and turned the ball over 22 times in all. Some of that had to do with South Florida’s full-court press late in the game. Guard Isaac McKneely saved them Thursday by hitting 7 of 10 3-point attempts. Louisville is the No. 21-ranked offense, per Kenpom, and 25th-ranked defense, though a good chunk of that is with Brown on the court. They have three common opponents with MSU — Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina and Duke twice. The Cardinals beat Kentucky at home and Indiana on a neutral court early in the season, lost close on the road to North Carolina, and twice fell to Duke, by 11 and 31 points, respectively. They don’t have a win over a Kenpom top 25 team all season.
MORE: Couch: Kaleb Glenn is trying to get the most out of this MSU NCAA tournament as he looks forward to next season
• Matchup analysis: Louisville looks good getting off the bus. The Cardinals play a rather chaotic style of offense, taking quick shots, and it sometimes works for them. Isaac McKneely is a dangerous shooter. We saw that against South Florida. That was his sixth game with five or more 3-pointers this season. He’s made 93 of them in all, shooting about 40%. Ryan Conwell is the Cardinals’ leading scorer. He’s attempted more than 300 3s, making about 34%. Wing J’Vonne Hadley is an efficient outside shooter, making 46% of 80 attempts. Louisville is fourth in the nation in percentage of 3-pointers attempted relative to overall field goals, shooting nearly 53% of their shots from beyond the arc. MSU, to compare, is at 36.4%.
I think this is a decent matchup for the Spartans — as long as they guard the 3-point line and the Cardinals don’t catch fire from out there. The absence of Brown limits some of the damage Louisville can cause getting into the lane and creating open 3s. On the other end of the court, MSU has to make sure it doesn’t turn the ball over against what will be an aggressive half-court Cardinals defense. The Spartans should have some opportunities to get out and run, as well.
• Prediction: We’re not to the stage of the tournament yet where the Spartans need to raise their game. They just have to play well, be themselves, rebound, defend with grit, and not mimic Louisville’s shot-selection.
• Make it: MSU 79, Louisville 72
MORE: Couch: A look at what’s in store for MSU Athletics as Spartan Ventures gets set to launch
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State basketball vs. Louisville NCAA tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
Reporting by Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal / Lansing State Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
