• What: Michigan State at Washington
• When: 6 p.m. (ET) Saturday
• Where: Alaska Airlines Arena, Seattle
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 196 (MSU broadcast), 387 (Washington broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 15-2 overall and 5-1 in the Big Ten, and week ranked No. 12 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches polls, No. 13 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee and No. 13 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Washington is 10-7 overall and 2-4 in the Big Ten, and unranked in both major polls. The Huskies are No. 55 in the NET rankings and No. 49 per Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -3.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 752-304 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Washington — Danny Sprinkle is 132-75 in his seventh season as a head coach, and 23-25 in his second season with the Huskies. He previously coached one season at Utah State and four at Montana State.
• Series: MSU leads 5-2 all-time, winning last season’s only meeting, 88-54, at Breslin Center. Prior to Washington joining the Big Ten before last year, the two teams had met most recently in the 2010 Maui Invitational, a game won by MSU. The Spartans have faced the Huskies one other time in the Izzo era, with MSU beating Washington at Breslin Center in the first round of the 1996 NIT, at the end of Izzo’s first season.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10..1
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 14.4
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.3
SG (99) Divine Ugochukwu (6-3) 5.0
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 12.8
Washington
C (11) Franck Kepnang (6-11) 6.4
PF (8) Hannes Steinbach (6-11) 17.9
F (8) Bryson Tucker (6-7) 6.7
G (0) Quimari Peterson (6-1) 10.1
PG (5) Zoom Diallo (6-1) 14.9
• MSU update: The Spartans head west for a two-game swing at Washington and Oregon after three straight home wins — over USC, Northwestern and Indiana. At 5-1 in the Big Ten, with games against struggling teams Maryland and Rutgers on the other side of this trip, MSU has a real shot to get to the midpoint of Big Ten play at 9-1 ahead of Michigan’s visit to Breslin. Doing so requires a successful business trip against the Huskies (Saturday) and Ducks (Tuesday), two teams with better talent than their records indicate. Last season, the Spartans dropped both of their Big Ten games on the West Coast, falling to USC and UCLA.
MSU so far this season is No. 2 nationally in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom.com, and No. 1 in defensive rebounding percentage, and No. 7 on the offensive end, with the Spartans hauling in better than 40% of their own missed shots. In conference games, they’re No. 1 in all three categories. Jaxon Kohler leads the Big Ten in 3-point percentage at 51.6%. and is second in rebounds per game at 10.1, behind only Washington’s Hannes Steinbach (11.0). MSU point guard Jeremy Fears is second in the league in assists (8.8 per game) and in the top five in free throw percentage (88.6%).
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• Washington update: Washington is coming off an 82-72 home loss to Michigan on Wednesday night. It’s the Huskies third loss in four games, including a win over Ohio State (81-74) and road losses at Purdue (81-73) and Indiana (80-70). In Big Ten play, the Huskies also have a win at USC (84-76) and a loss at home to UCLA (82-80) in early December.
This is a very different roster than the group that got blown out at Breslin Center last season, though not altogether an unfamiliar group. Last year’s USC backcourt of Wesley Yates III and Desmond Claude (who combined for 34 points against MSU) is now on Washington’s roster, as is Indiana transfer Bryson Tucker and Rutgers transfer Lathan Sommerville, though Sommerville is out with an injury. Guard Zoom Diallo and big man Franck Kepnang are the only returners. Freshmen big man Hannes Steinbach has been Washington’s best player all season, averaging 18 points and 11 rebounds. Fellow freshman JJ Mandaquit handled most of the important minutes at point guard for Washington against Michigan on Wednesday night. The Huskies also just added power forward transfer Jacob Ognacevic, who scored 10 points in his debut Wednesday, after missing the first half of the season with a foot injury.
• Matchup analysis: The Huskies’ roster, on paper, is one that should be in the NCAA tournament. And their coach, Danny Sprinkle, has been very successful at getting the most out of teams at previous stops. But this collection of players doesn’t always seem to fit or play connected basketball. Turning to the freshman Mandaquit at point guard has been one attempt to fix that. The Huskies have skilled size, length on the wing and depth. But they don’t move the ball all that well and they often don’t shoot it well from deep. Washington ranks 277th in assists-per-bucket, per Kenpom, and makes just 31.5% of its 3-point tries, which ranks 269th nationally. MSU, by comparison, makes 35.5% of its 3s, putting the Spartans in the top 100 nationally, and they’re No. 2 in college basketball in assists-per-basket. Washington’s size won’t bother MSU, though Steinbach can be a chore to defend. Guard Quimari Peterson, an East Tennessee State transfer, is the one player in Washington’s rotation that regularly is dangerous from beyond the arc.
• Prediction: Washington has the talent to give MSU a difficult game, if the Huskies hit shots and play to their ability. This is a dicey trip for the Spartans, but one they’ve got to handle if they want to have a chance to repeat as Big Ten champions.
• Make it: MSU 83, Washington 78
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Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Coch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State basketball at Washington tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
Reporting by Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal / Lansing State Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
