With some of their nominations for key statewide offices, such as attorney general and secretary of state, already settled in the selections of Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit and Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist at their most recent chaotic state convention, many Democrats are wondering about their structural disadvantage heading into the fall.
There is one last opportunity for Democrats to try to hold some semblance of real political power in the state to balance the scales should Savit and Gilchrist struggle to win in November.
That opportunity is found in the August primary race for U.S. Senate, where U.S. Rep Haley Stevens of Birmingham is locked in a tough battle with Ann Arbor physician Abdul El-Sayed and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow of Royal Oak.
There are concerns that what took place at the state convention is a harbinger for things to come. Sayed could win the nomination for U.S. Senate but faces a steep hill to climb in terms of building a wider coalition for November that would bring independents, including those who typically would vote Republican.
“There is a real possibility that Democrats can flip the U.S. Senate but that won’t happen if Michigan doesn’t keep outgoing Sen. Gary Peters’ seat in the Democratic column,” U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell told me.
That raises the stakes for the race because Stevens is largely viewed as the consensus candidate who can expand the coalition and raise the funds necessary to take on former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers of White Lake Township.
The reality is that Michigan Democrats face a real trade-off in this campaign: whether to choose a Senate candidate who excites the base or one who can win over a broader electorate.
Because the next U.S. Senator will have to represent a wide and diverse range of interests, including those who disagree with them on issues, not just what excites the base of their political party. What worked for progressive Democrats at the convention won’t necessarily work in the general election because the candidates will come under greater scrutiny across all levels.
Facing urban, rural, young and older voters means the nominee will have to be multidimensional and translate their values across different audiences.
Sayed hasn’t demonstrated that he can reach beyond his own loyal supporters, who similarly backed the nominations of Savit and Gilchrist. That’s a tactical problem because he risks being viewed as a candidate who appeals only to the Democratic base. That can generate enthusiasm and energy as it is doing right now for his supporters, but in reality, elections are won on the margins, predicated on who can build a majority.
It is critical to have a loyal base but that is only one fraction of the entire electorate.
Stevens, too, faces a challenge in defining herself within the base of the Michigan Democratic Party. The reason Sayed has reached this far and gained so much momentum is because she has not strongly articulated her priorities and values.
For any political candidate to succeed, they have to first build credibility and authenticity. Even though Stevens would be the most formidable Democratic candidate against Rogers, a Republican, in a November matchup, she seems to be struggling to anchor her message on something that her party’s base can hold on to.
She has to come across as a candidate with strong conviction, not opportunistic. If she can’t do that, then her viability to a much larger audience in November is in doubt, even as she is poised to be the Democrats’ only saving grace for the Senate race.
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Bankole Thompson’s columns appear on Mondays and Thursdays in The Detroit News.
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Michigan Democrats at a crossroads in Senate race | Thompson
Reporting by Bankole Thompson / The Detroit News
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