The path to victory in November for John James against Jocelyn Benson is straightforward to describe, but may be harder to execute. That general election matchup was officially set Tuesday night when James won the Republican primary and Benson secured the Democratic nomination.
History suggests it’s the Republicans’ turn to win, since outgoing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is a Democrat. No governor has succeeded a member of his or her own party in 58 years. But James can’t simply run a good Republican campaign. He has to build a coalition that seals that pattern.
Benson enters the fall campaign with broader statewide name recognition, a significant cash advantage and the benefit of following a Democratic governor who remains popular with many Michigan voters.
Against that backdrop, James’ first priority must be to unify Republicans.
He won a competitive primary against Perry Johnson, leaving behind disappointed supporters who invested heavily in defeating him. Republicans may ultimately have little choice but to rally behind James in November, but enthusiasm — not party loyalty — could be his biggest early challenge.
From there, James must make this election about Michigan’s future — not another national political fight.
Frankly, I’m already tired of the endless “common sense” versus “crazy” and “communist” slogans that have become the GOP’s message. Michigan deserves better than a campaign built on regurgitated national talking points.
James has a compelling message on affordability, the economy, education and government accountability. Those should remain the centerpiece of his campaign.
Michigan voters consistently rank the cost of living, roads, jobs and public safety among their top concerns. The more this campaign centers on those kitchen-table issues, the stronger James’ position becomes. The more it devolves into debates driven by Washington politics, the more it plays to Benson’s advantage.
James also has to win back suburban independents.
Republicans have improved their standing with working-class voters over the past decade, but statewide victories still run through suburban communities in Oakland, Kent and parts of Macomb and Washtenaw counties. Those voters frequently split their tickets and tend to reward candidates they view as competent, pragmatic and focused on solving problems. James’ military background and business experience give him an opportunity to make that case — but only if he maintains a disciplined message and shows up everywhere.
He also can’t allow Benson to define him first.
As a two-term secretary of state, Benson begins the general election with well-established statewide recognition. James has his own profile after multiple statewide campaigns and two terms in Congress, but there are roughly 90 days until the general election. If Benson defines James before he defines himself, Republicans will spend much of the fall playing defense.
Instead, James should immediately introduce a positive vision centered on affordability, housing, workforce development and making Michigan more competitive for families and businesses.
And he has to pound home how Michigan has failed under Democratic leadership. Household income here is 13%, or nearly $4,000 a year, below the national average. U.S. News and World Report just ranked Michigan in the bottom five of states in overall performance. James must lay out a better path to prosperity.
Ultimately, James is now competing for the independent, ticket-splitting voters who are likely to decide Michigan’s next governor.
Without Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, there is no guarantee the November electorate will resemble 2024.
James can’t assume Republican voters will simply show up, and he can’t afford to let this race become a referendum on Washington. This should be a Michigan campaign through and through, and that race began Tuesday night.
kbuss@detroitnews.com
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: John James can win in November, but it won’t be easy | Buss
Reporting by Kaitlyn Buss, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Kaitlyn Buss, The Detroit News | USA TODAY Network
