There were eight last-place teams in the NFL in 2025, and the Detroit Lions were one of them.
But, it wasn’t so long ago that the Lions were on top of the NFC North, winning back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024, and it might not be long before they’re at the top of the heap again.
ESPN on Friday ranked the eight last-place finishers in terms of which team was most likely to flip its fortunes to first place. The Lions topped the list, based on odds of winning their division via ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The Lions, according to the FPI, own an NFC North-best 38.2% chance of winning their division, and a 68.4% chance of reaching the postseason.
After winning a combined 27 regular-season games in 2023 and 2024, the Lions stumbled to 9-8 last season, watching their playoff hopes officially evaporate on Christmas Day against the Minnesota Vikings and their backup quarterback.
Still the Lions were just a half-game behind the second-place Green Bay Packers — though the Packers swept both regular-season meetings — and two games behind the division-winning Chicago Bears, who the Lions swept.
“The Lions have by far the best odds to go from worst to first for three main reasons,” ESPN NFL analyst Aaron Schatz writes, “Schedule, injuries and they weren’t really that bad last season. Of course, this is exactly what I wrote about the 49ers a year ago, so there certainly are no guarantees.”
Injuries ravaged the Lions defensively last season, with starting safeties Brian Branch (five games missed) and Kerby Joseph (11) failing to finish the season. The secondary also saw defensive backs Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed miss games, as well as defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Alim McNeill, among a host of others.
” … One of these years, the Lions might make it through a season without suffering the most defensive injuries of any team in the league,” Aaron Schatz writes. “Detroit ranked dead last in adjusted games lost on defense last season, and only the Cardinals had more injuries overall.”
The Lions’ schedule, meanwhile, includes games against the Arizona Cardinals (3-14 last season), New York Giants (4-13), New York Jets (3-14) and Tennessee Titans (3-14 last season). They won a combined 13 games last season.
“The Lions’ schedule ranks 27th in the league by the average projected DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) of their opponents,” Schatz writes, “the other three teams in the NFC North all have schedules ranked 18th or harder. Getting Arizona on their schedule instead of the other three NFC West teams is huge, but the Lions also play the Giants and Titans instead of the tougher teams their division rivals must face.”
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Can Lions go from worst to first? ESPN ranks 2025 last-place teams
Reporting by Daren Tomhave, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Daren Tomhave, The Detroit News | USA TODAY Network
