MADISON – Tom Kapper knows Francesca Hong will have an uphill climb if she secures the Democratic nomination for governor. But he’s voting for her anyway.
Kapper, a 61-year-old real estate agent who lives in Madison, said he views the divisions between Democrats taking shape in public view during the last few weeks of the primary race as healthy growing pains for the Democratic Party.
Hong, a democratic socialist, heads into the Tuesday, Aug. 11 primary election with double digit leads in statewide polling at a time when the Democratic electorate is shifting to the party’s left.
Her chief competition is Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a more moderate Democrat who had dropped out and jumped back into the race in July after the state’s lieutenant governor’s campaign imploded leaving voters who weren’t sold on Hong without an obvious choice.
The matchup in Wisconsin provides the latest highly scrutinized test of whether new progressive victories in deep blue states can be replicated in Midwestern battlegrounds. The winner will face Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in the general election.
“I personally am more progressive and lean that direction, but I think, in the current climate, they would have a hard time winning in the general election,” Kapper said at the Warner Park Community Recreation Center, a busy early voting site on the north side of Madison.
Undecided voters in polling may have an impact
At the Warner Park site, 77-year-old Jean Larocque cast a ballot for Crowley for governor.
Larocque is exactly the kind of voter Crowley is hoping will make him competitive with Hong.
A sizable chunk – 34% − of voters were undecided in the most recent Marquette University Law School poll. Among the voters polled, those over the age of 60 were less likely to support Hong.
But Hong’s lead looks all but insurmountable, according to the Marquette poll and internal polling released this week by Crowley’s campaign that showed Hong leading by 20 percentage points.
With Hong in the pole position, Republicans have launched their fire early – highlighting past social media posts that showed Hong at one point wanted to cancel Thanksgiving, criticized Christmas and Valentine’s Day, and expressed discomfort being around white people at a Culver’s in northern Wisconsin.
“Give her grace,” Larocque said, when asked if she would hold those comments against Hong.
Chad Norquist, 48, of Madison said he is backing Hong but bristled at some of her controversial positions.
“I do wish she would tone it down a little bit, but I’m not opposed to the things she says,” said Norquist, a maintenance mechanic. “I think it’s pretty good for people to hear stuff like that − doesn’t shock me at all.”
“I think it’s helpful for the party. Change is good. We need it. We’ve been stuck in a rut,” he added.
Hong’s most passionate supporters are young voters, especially between the ages of 18 and 29.
“I voted against the establishment,” Blake Vanniel, 28, said about his vote for Hong.
Tight race in Michigan give Crowley campaign hope
Crowley is hoping a tighter than expected Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate in Michigan means his effort to coalesce enough voters to head off Hong’s lead is not such a longshot as Election Day nears.
Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Haley Stevens in Michigan on Aug. 8 in a race that ended up being closer than any polling predicted, buoying moderate Democrats in Wisconsin who have been steamrolled by a democratic socialist candidate in polling throughout the race.
The Crowley campaign reacted to the Michigan election result by contending Hong’s margin is not as wide as polling predicts, arguing her voter coalition is one that has never occurred in a statewide race in the Badger State.
To that end, the campaign released a memo to donors on Aug. 5 arguing a new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for the campaign shows a tight race when looking at an electorate that more closely matches voter demographics of recent statewide races.
University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center director Barry Burden said for Crowley’s argument to take shape, the Wisconsin polling would need to be farther off than polling showed ahead of the Michigan race.
“El-Sayed was leading Stevens by 10 to 15 points in public polling. He won by one point. Crowley’s memo shows he is losing in a standard poll question by an even larger margin, so the polls need to be farther off in Wisconsin for him to be victorious,” Burden said. “Maybe the wilder fluctuations in the Wisconsin primary make it more possible for this kind of error to happen, but it would be substantial at more than 20 points.”
Young voters may determine the Democratic primary winner
Burden said younger voters are the wild card. Typically, younger voters sit out state primaries and play a small role in determining a winner. That could change this election.
“Surveys almost certainly overstate how young primary voters will be, and to that extent also overstate Hong’s support. But enthusiasm for her campaign is also likely to make this year’s primary voters younger than in 2018 and 2022. Her campaign appears to have a ground operation that surpasses what other candidates have put together in the past,” he said.
Scot Ross, a longtime Democratic strategist and former executive director of liberal advocacy group One Wisconsin Now, said Democrats’ desire for a larger fight with the Trump administration is driving Hong’s support.
“Primaries are a reflection of where the party is at that moment,” Ross said.
“Democratic voters are asking themselves, How can Trump tear down the White House and get away with it? How can Trump enrich his family with millions in crypto and get away with it?” he said. “Fran is articulating that thing of, I’m fighting back against this … because they don’t feel that it’s being fought.”
Voting will conclude an unusual, chaotic primary contest
The last few weeks of the Democratic primary have been defined by chaos. Should Hong prevail, she enters the general election against Tiffany even high-profile Democrats have said publicly they don’t believe she can win.
Evers, who endorsed Crowley, said “probably not” when asked by the Journal Sentinel if he believed Hong can beat Tiffany. Former Obama strategist David Axelrod has repeatedly criticized Hong, saying it would be best for El Sayed if Hong lost on Tuesday because Republicans will seek to link the two given they are both democratic socialists.
“He is a serious person. She is a font of zany liberal, faculty lounge exotica,” Axelrod said on X.
Ben Voelkel, a former communications director for U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and longtime Republican operative, said primary will likely leave Hong bruised in the general should she secure the nomination.
“I think it will be a challenge for Democrats, particularly, when you have Tony Evers saying the frontrunner in the primary can’t win the general election,” Voelkel said. “That’s a bell that can’t be unrung.”
Mary Spicuzza of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel contributed to this report.
Molly Beck and Clara Strecker can be reached at molly.beck@jrn.com and cstrecker@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Will Hong be the latest democratic socialist to win a Midwest state?
Reporting by Molly Beck and Clara Strecker, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Molly Beck and Clara Strecker, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel | USA TODAY Network
