It’s time for the final showdown in Kentucky – U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie versus Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein.
The race between the two Republicans in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District has wound up being the most expensive House primary race in history and the nation is tuning in to see who wins.
Why all the focus on the northern swath of Kentucky where about 800,000 people live across the Ohio River from Cincinnati?
Here’s the short version:
President Donald Trump and the ‘worst Republican’ in Congress
On social media, President Donald Trump has called Massie the “Worst Republican” in Congress, a “loser,” and a “bum.” But most importantly, Trump has called for Kentuckians to vote Massie out of office.
On May 17, the day after Massie-supporting Republicans rallied in favor of the incumbent, Trump attacked Massie on Truth Social.
“The Worst Republican Congressman in History,” Trump wrote. “Kentucky, vote the bum out on Tuesday. We can’t live with this troublemaker for another two years.”
Trump endorsed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL captain and fifth-generation farmer, in October.
Trump even rallied for Gallrein in March during a trip to Northern Kentucky.
The president told hundreds of local supporters that Gallrein has his “complete and total endorsement,” calling the Shelbyville, Kentucky, farmer and former Navy SEAL officer a “true American hero” and “great patriot.”
Why does Trump want Massie gone?
They’ve butted heads on and off for years, with Trump suggesting that someone should run against Massie before the 2024 primary election.
Instead, Massie won the race with about 76% of the vote.
But after Trump took office again in 2025, their political relationship took a nose dive. They disagreed publicly about issues like federal spending (Massie is a fiscal hawk) and U.S. involvement in foreign wars, including Trump’s attacks on Iran.
But their biggest rift has been about the investigative filed connected to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Massie was the key force that pushed for the public release of the Epstein files, initially against Trump’s will.
How does Gallrein play into this?
Republican Ed Gallrein was invited to the White House last fall to talk to Trump about running for office against Massie.
Gallrein previously ran for Kentucky state senate but lost in a tight race against fellow former Navy SEAL Aaron Reed.
For most of the campaign, Gallrein denied most interview requests and he’s refused to debate Massie.
But he’s made himself more available to voters and reporters in the past few weeks.
Why does this matter nationally?
Trump is an outgoing president who’s not eligible for reelection. So how much does his opinion and influence matter anymore?
That’s the real question at stake in the election and it hasn’t looked good for other lawmakers who have opposed him.
In Texas, for instance, U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw failed to get Trump’s endorsement and lost his reelection bid. Crenshaw refused to repeat claims that the 2020 election was stolen and was critical of Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
In Indiana, five of the seven state lawmakers who defied Trump’s wishes to redraw congressional maps to favor Republicans lost to Trump-endorsed primary challengers two weeks ago. A sixth race remains so close a recount is underway.
And just this weekend, U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-LA, lost his reelection bid after failing to get a Trump endorsement, too. Cassidy voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial following the 2021 U.S. Capitol attack.
So, is Massie toast?
Some recent polls show Gallrein up to eight points ahead of Massie. But others show Massie in the lead by as much as nine points, according to The New York Times. One poll shows the candidates dead even.
So, that’s not very helpful.
But one thing to keep in mind about Kentucky voters is that they can be very independent-minded.
For instance, Trump overwhelmingly won the state in the past three presidential elections, yet voters twice ushered in Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear in that same time period.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Will Trump get revenge on Thomas Massie? KY Republicans decide today
Reporting by Dan Horn and Jolene Almendarez, Cincinnati Enquirer / Cincinnati Enquirer
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
