The Buffalo Bills did not get an NFL international game for the third straight year which seems a bit strange given that Josh Allen is their quarterback, and they’re the only team to have appeared in the postseason seven years in a row.
However, when the schedule was officially released Thursday night, it showed that the NFL still deems the Bills a big-time draw as they were slotted in for the maximum amount allowed six primetime games, one of those on Thanksgiving night, and three in the high-visibility late afternoon time slot including one of the robust Christmas day schedule.
And if the Bills are once again a playoff team in Joe Brady’s first year as head coach, there’s also the chance for more big window games through late-season flexing.
Initially, the Bills will play two night games on Thursday, two on Monday, one on Saturday and one on Sunday, and the Christmas game in Denver is on a Friday late afternoon. So the only days they aren’t playing are Tuesday and Wednesday.
The first primetime game is the most anticipated of all – Week 2 against the Detroit Lions on Amazon Prime’s Thursday Night Football, the first regular-season game in brand new Highmark Stadium.
How tough is this schedule? It’s always difficult to calculate because who knows how any of the teams are going to look down the road, but the Sharp Football Analysis model for strength of schedule is a solid metric. It computes its ranking on the oddsmakers’ projected win totals for every team because those are based on the most current information regarding roster additions and subtractions, lingering injuries, and coaching changes.
That model – which projects Buffalo at 10.5 wins – has the Bills just on the easier side of neutral at 14th-easiest. That’s quite a change from 2025 when they had the fifth-easiest schedule, but it’s also hard to believe because this schedule, on the surface, looks very tough.
Buffalo will play eight games against 2025 playoff teams – home and away against the defending AFC champion Patriots (9.5 projected win total), and then the Chargers (10.5) and Bears (9.5) at home and the Texans (9.5), Broncos (9.5), Packers (10.5) and Rams (league-high 11.5) on the road.
Here’s my analysis of the Bills schedule:
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13, at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., CBS
Nothing like starting off with a brutal test. NRG Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Bills since it opened in 2002 when the Texans entered the league. They won their first two games there in 2002 and 2006 and haven’t won since, a six-game losing streak that includes the 2019 AFC wildcard game. In a 23-20 loss in 2024 that came on a walk-off field goal, Allen completed just 9 of 30 passes. Last year in a 22-19 loss he threw two interceptions and was sacked a career-high eight times. The Texans’ defense remains awesome, so it’s tough to see things changing down there for the Bills. PICK: Texans.
Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 17 vs. Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime
The last two times these teams played each, the games were absolute bangers, both at Detroit’s Ford Field. On Thanksgiving 2022, Tyler Bass kicked a walk-off field goal to give the Bills a 28-25 victory. And in 2024, the Bills earned a crazy 48-42 victory in what was the highest-scoring game in the NFL as the teams combined for 1,090 yards of offense including 392 passing by Allen and 494 by the Lions’ Jared Goff. PICK: Bills.
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1 p.m., FOX
This will be the first time the Bills are playing the Jim Harbaugh-coached Chargers. The last game was at Los Angeles in 2023 and Buffalo won 24-22 with Giff Smith serving as interim Chargers head coach after Brandon Staley had been fired. The Chargers last visit to Buffalo was in the COVID season, so they haven’t played in front of Bills fans since 2018. That Week 2 day happened to be the first start of Allen’s NFL career and he threw for 245 yards and a TD but also was picked off twice and sacked five times in a 31-20 loss. PICK: Bills.
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m., CBS
This will wrap up a three-game homestand for the Bills which should be ideal for fans in the weather department. In their final visit to old Highmark Stadium, the Patriots announced to the NFL that their back-to-back 4-13 seasons were a thing of the past. In Week 5 on Sunday Night Football, they beat the previously unbeaten Bills (4-0) 23-20, and that result signaled a sea change in the division and it helped propel New England to its first title since 2019 when Tom Brady was still the quarterback. PICK: Bills.
Week 5: Monday, Oct. 12, at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
This is the NFC crossover game for Buffalo where they play the Rams who finished second in the NFC West last year, and it caps a five-week start that, right now, looks extremely difficult. The last time the Bills were at Sofi Stadium in 2024, they lost in a 44-42 scoring frenzy despite Allen throwing for 342 yards, running for 82, and producing six total touchdowns, one of the best games of his career. Unfortunately the Rams converted 11 of 15 third downs and gained 457 yards, 320 through the air from Matthew Stafford who in 2026 is the reigning league MVP, having taken the title from 2024 winner Allen. PICK: Rams.
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25, CBS
The Raiders were a deserving recipient of the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft following a miserable 2025 season, a three-win, one-and-done year for head coach Pete Carroll. Now young Klint Kubiak is the head coach, and that No. 1 pick, quarterback Fernando Mendoza, will try to begin the restoration of the once-proud franchise that has been a laughingstock with just two postseason appearances since they lost the Super Bowl following the 2002 season. PICK: Bills.
Week 7: BYE WEEK
This is the second consecutive year the Bills are getting their bye in Week 7, and this one comes after making back-to-back trips to the West Coast. Also, the Bills will get rest and extra time to prepare for their big AFC showdown against the Ravens.
Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1 vs Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., CBS
These teams kicked off the 2025 Sunday Night Football schedule with a game that held up as one of the best of the entire season, a remarkable 41-40 Bills victory as they scored 16 points in the final 3:56 in what was the last home opener at the old stadium. That loss was part of a 1-5 start for the Ravens which eventually led to them missing the postseason and John Harbaugh getting fired after 18 seasons. PICK: Ravens.
Week 9: Monday, Nov. 9 at Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m. ESPN
Allen returns to U.S. Bank Stadium, the place where his first meme was produced. In his rookie season in 2018, Allen’s second career start came in Minnesota in a game where the Bills were a massive 16.5-point underdog, but the moment Allen leaped over Vikings’ linebacker Anthony Barr, you knew the quarterback was bound for stardom. He went on to earn his first QB victory as he threw for 196 yards and a TD, plus ran for two TDs. The Vikings are coming off a disappointing 9-8 season and the Bills will be facing a team trying to decide whether Kyler Murray or JJ McCarthy will be the quarterback. PICK: Bills.
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15 at New York Jets, 1 p.m., CBS
Playing on the road the previous Monday, and heading back on the road on short rest isn’t great, but these are the Jets were’ talking about. Aaron Glenn’s first season as head coach was a nightmare as the Jets went 3-14 and were outscored 503-300. On offense, they did not have a single player reach 400 yards receiving (Garrett Wilson missed half the season) and on defense, they became the first team in NFL history to have zero interceptions. The Bills have won the last five games in the series by a cumulative score of 160-58 including 30-10 in the game at MetLife in 2025. PICK: Bills.
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., FOX
Since Allen came to Buffalo in 2018, the Bills never lost to the Dolphins in the old Highmark Stadium. They were 9-0 including a postseason victory in January 2023 and in those games, the Bills have outscored Miami 330-203. Miami has missed the postseason two years in a row and despite the change to new coach Jeff Hafley and quarterback Malik Willis, the roster is in flux and the expectation is that the Dolphins will be jockeying with the Jets to stay out of the AFC East cellar. It’s nice to be at home for this game with the Chiefs coming to town four days later. PICK: Bills.
Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 26 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m., NBC
After reaping the benefits of massive ratings televising one of the league’s best rivalries, CBS cedes Bills-Chiefs to NBC as the final game of the Thanksgiving triple-header. This will be Buffalo’s first hosting on this holiday after playing 11 road Thanksgiving games dating back to their days in the AFL. We all know the history here: The teams have played every year since 2020 with the Bills 5-1 in the regular season but 0-4 in the postseason. This has a good chance to become the highest-rated game ever played in the late Thanksgiving window. PICK: Bills.
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6 at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Having played on Thanksgiving, the Bills will have extra rest for what should be a huge game against the Patriots. In their last visit to Foxborough, the Bills fell into a 21-0 hole and it looked like their chances of winning a sixth straight AFC East title were going to die on that mid-December day. Instead, the Bills pulled off a stunning comeback and beat the Patriots 35-31 to get within 1.5 games and keep their hopes alive. Obviously, they never did catch the Patriots who ended up reaching the Super Bowl, but it was one of the high points of the 2025 season. PICK: Patriots.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 13 at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m., NBC
The Bills have played only five times at historic Lambeau Field, and not since 2018 which was the last year they didn’t qualify for the postseason. It was Allen’s third career start, a miserable 22-0 loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers as he was sacked seven times and the Bills managed just 145 net yards. This game should be much more competitive. PICK: Packers.
Week 15: Saturday, Dec. 19 vs Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m., CBS
In Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach and Caleb Williams’ second year as the starting quarterback, the Bears won their first NFC North title since 2018 going 11-6. They beat arch rival Green Bay in a thrilling wild-card game, then lost in equally thrilling fashion to the Rams in overtime in the divisional round, but hopes are soaring in Chicago with Williams throwing to WRs Rome Udunze, Luther Burden III and Kalif Raymond, plus TEs Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet. PICK: Bills.
Week 16: Friday, Dec. 25 at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m., Netflix
The Bills remain a holiday treat this year as they play Thanksgiving night and also on Christmas day in Denver for a rematch of last season’s AFC divisional round thriller won by the Broncos 33-30. This will be Buffalo’s first game on Christmas and there are now just six current NFL teams who have not played on that holiday. Former Broncos defensive backs coach Jim Leonhard, now the Bills defensive coordinator, will match wits against his old boss, Broncos’ head coach/offensive playcaller Sean Payton in what will be one of the most intriguing games of the NFL season considering both teams are Super Bowl contenders. PICK: Bills.
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3 at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBS
Miami is in rebuild mode as Malik Willis has replaced Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, perhaps an unfortunate switch for the Bills who were 9-2 in games Tua played against them. Both of the losses were at Hard Rock, a 21-19 defeat in 2022 and then last year’s 30-13 Buffalo no-show in what was undeniably Buffalo’s worst performance of 2025. PICK: Bills.
Week 18: TBD vs. New York Jets, TBD
Just like last season, the Bills will close their regular season against the Jets. Thanks to the Buffalo Sabres making the Stanley Cup playoffs this spring, the Jets now own the longest playoff drought among the four major sport leagues in America. They haven’t been there since 2010, and with the Bills and Patriots in the AFC East, that’s probably going to be extended to 16 years, even though New York made some nice additions to its roster via free agency and the draft. The Jets have not won in Buffalo since 2019 and that was a day when Allen rested for the playoffs and Matt Barkley played the bulk of the game. PICK: Bills.
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for more than four decades including 37 years as the full-time beat writer/columnist for the D&C. He has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills 2026 game-by-game predictions following schedule release
Reporting by Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
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