Republican Mike Rogers holds a narrow 2-percentage-point lead in head-to-head matchups against Democrats Haley Stevens and Mallory McMorrow, representing a statistical dead heat in a new statewide survey of 600 likely Michigan voters.
In hypothetical matchups, Rogers got 43.8% support to Stevens’ 41.5%, while Rogers got 42.8% to McMorrow’s 40.7% ― both results falling within the survey’s margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.
Rogers held a wider lead of nearly 5 percentage points when facing physician Abdul El-Sayed of Ann Arbor, 44.7% to 39.8%.
The poll of 600 likely voters in the Michigan general election was commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber and conducted April 28 to May 1 by the Lansing-based Glengariff Group. It was conducted separately from another poll the Detroit chamber commissioned in mid-April, which surveyed Democratic primary voters on their preferences in the Stevens-McMorrow-El-Sayed contest.
In the latest poll, the hypothetical match-ups between Rogers and Stevens and Rogers and McMorrow both tightened to ties among voters who described themselves as “definite” voters in the November general election. Rogers tied Stevens 44% to 44%, and he tied McMorrow 43% to 43%, while Rogers still led El-Sayed among definite voters, 45% to nearly 42%, according to the poll.
The Detroit Regional Chamber’s poll surveyed a sample of voters that included 41% who identify as Democratic voters, 40% who vote Republican and 16% said they are political independents.
Michigan’s U.S. Senate contest is ranked among the most competitive in the country this year after U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, opted not to seek reelection.
The winner of the Aug. 4 Democratic primary will likely face former FBI agent and congressman Rogers of White Lake Township in the November general election, with national Republicans targeting the seat as a top pick-up opportunity.
“Mike Rogers continues to command the field with his campaign to Get Michigan Working Again,” Rogers spokeswoman Alyssa Brouillet said in a statement.
“Mike Rogers will fix everything the Democrats broke – from restoring job opportunities, to getting kids reading again, and making life more affordable.”
But pollster Richard Czuba, whose Glengariff Group firm conducted the new survey, said Rogers faces a significant hurdle in the number of undecided voters remaining in each matchup with the Democratic candidates, including 14.7% undecided when he faces Stevens, 15.5% against El-Sayed and 16.5% against McMorrow, according to the poll results.
A large majority of those undecided voters ― ranging from 67% to 74% ― said they disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, which could be a drag on the Rogers’ campaign come November, Czuba said.
“This is a pretty good chunk of voters who are still undecided, and as we saw in the primary poll, part of the reason for that is the Democrats who are running just don’t have strong name ID yet, even within their own party, let alone with anyone. But when you look at them, boy oh boy do they disapprove of Donald Trump by a margin of 70%,” Czuba said.
“This is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump. That makes for a very treacherous path for Mike Rogers.”
Undecided voters are often political independents who haven’t yet focused on or made a choice for a candidate and are typically “late-breaking” voters, Czuba said.
How they view the incumbent president is a clue as to where they might eventually land, the pollster said.
“This is the challenge that (Republican gubernatorial hopeful Bill) Schuette faced in ‘18 and that (GOP Senate nominee John) James faced against Debbie Stabenow: How do you pivot from having Donald Trump’s support to winning those late-breaking voters?” Czuba said. “In this case, these late-breaking voters are deeply disapproving of Donald Trump.”
Czuba stressed that progressive El-Sayed isn’t polling as well as Stevens and McMorrow when up against Rogers, suggesting that Democrats would seem to have an “easier” path with either of their female Senate candidates. El-Sayed’s numbers are just a couple of points lower across the board, in all different demographic groups, Czuba noted.
“There could be a whole host of issues that go into it, his politics, the fact that he’s a man, and ― as ugly as it is ― his name,” Czuba said of El-Sayed, a Muslim and son of an Egyptian immigrant.
“Democratic women are doing better than men. That may have been a factor. … I think Democrats have a very interesting decision to make here, because it’s a decision not just about Michigan but about the U.S. Senate.”
mburke@detroitnews.com
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Rogers holds edge over Stevens, McMorrow in Michigan U.S. Senate poll
Reporting by Melissa Nann Burke, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
