CLEVELAND – One of these days, Detroit Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff is going to close with Ausar Thompson and not worry about whether he can make a corner 3-pointer.
One of these days he’s going to forget about the laws of traditional floor spacing and lean into the game-shifting, momentum-swinging gifts of one of the most unique players in recent NBA memory and say – metaphorically, of course:
He’s our second-best player; he’s our second-most impactful player, and when he and Cade Cunningham are on the floor together, that’s our best chance to win.
Unfortunately for the Pistons, that day was not Saturday, May 9, in the closing minutes of Game 3 against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
It should have been.
Oh, there are other reasons – plenty of them – for the Pistons’ 116-109 loss at Rocket Arena.
Among them:
Yet those are largely results that can’t always be controlled, that are subject to the whims of sport. (Except, of course, for some of the turnovers – an area where Cunningham needs to be better, said he needed to be better, and deserves credit for never ducking questions after he’s had a subpar performance.)
But benching Thompson in a tie game with a few minutes left?
That’s a choice. Not an easy one, obviously, but a choice.
A choice to go away from the thing that makes these Pistons the Pistons.
Now, before we get further into the most questionable decision of the Pistons’ Game 3 loss – a decision that’s important primarily because it speaks to the heart of this club’s identity – let’s agree on one fundamental truth of second-guessing:
The choice the coach didn’t make doesn’t guarantee the opposite outcome.
All we can say is that the choice the coach made didn’t work.
Good? Good.
Let’s get to it: Bickerstaff should not have pulled Thompson with 3:05 left in the game. Now, I know what you’re thinking: But what about Paul Reed?
It’s true that Bickerstaff’s decision to pull Reed for Jalen Duren with 4:32 left in the game didn’t work either. But he had the eye test on his side: Reed looked gassed.
He also had history.
Jalen Duren has proven he can finish
Duren has shaken off a poor performance before and closed with authority. In these very playoffs, in fact, as he did when he helped close out the comeback in Game 6 in Orlando. So, there is that.
Yes, Duren grabbed only four rebounds Saturday afternoon, a number that spoke to his compete level, and it’s fair to argue he didn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. Still, he’d rewarded Bickerstaff’s faith in a big spot before, and, again, Reed looked like he needed a breather.
“You always have those thoughts about what you want to do,” said Bickerstaff, “but I think JD’s done a great job for us all year long. P Reed obviously provides a spark for us, but again, we went back with JD.”
If nothing else, you can hear in his answer that he grapples with these choices, and it’s not surprising; they’ve got to be made in a matter of seconds usually, under tremendous pressure, often done on feel as much as anything that’s statistically measurable.
But then that’s part of the job.
Clearly, if a player looks spent, that makes the choice easier. Reed did. Thompson did not. It didn’t matter.
The score was tied when Bickerstaff called Thompson to the bench for Daniss Jenkins, and in no world did he have any ammunition to make that call. At best, he had a vague basketball maxim on his side, that the floor needed more spacing.
He did not have the numbers.
And while on/off stats – the measure of a player’s impact – aren’t perfect, Thompson had the second-best plus/minus to that point in the game, behind Cunningham. Further, advanced stats showed that Cunningham and Thompson together had an outrageously high plus-minus.
In other words, the Pistons were at their best – by far – when those two were on the court.
So, advanced stats suggested Thompson stay put. Observant Cleveland fans were thrilled he didn’t. The Basketball Gods shuddered when he didn’t.
Again, there is no guarantee – none – that if Bickerstaff had left Thompson on the floor instead of subbing him for Jenkins, the Pistons would’ve won the game. After all, James Harden hit the dagger 3-pointer. In a postseason game. With his team’s season hanging in the balance.
Maybe it wasn’t the Pistons’ day.
Lessons for Thompson and Jenkins
Maybe no decision was going to matter.
Then again, Bickerstaff should’ve known that math and metrics and history – even the eye test – suggested Thompson belonged on the floor at that moment over Jenkins, who had played his worst game of the postseason to that point.
Bickerstaff chose Jenkins, in theory, because of Jenkins’ play-making and shooting ability. But Jenkins hadn’t made a play or a shot all day, except for a layup in the first half, and was clearly bothered by Dennis Schröder’s jawing.
That’s understandable. Jenkins is, in practice, a rookie and still learning. Thompson is learning, too. He picked up a couple cheap fouls in Game 2 and it forced him to sit for a long stretch in the third quarter. The Pistons’ defense suffered.
Bickerstaff said before Game 3 that Thompson wouldn’t keep picking up those fouls. Then he did, again, and sat, again, and the defense suffered, again. This time in the second quarter, as the Pistons fell behind by 16 at the half.
To their credit, and to Bickerstaff’s, the Pistons got back into the game despite a shoddy first half and all those turnovers and uneven shooting from Cunningham and Jenkins and Tobias Harris.
Bickerstaff has imbued this team with resilience and toughness, and it showed all over the court Saturday afternoon. Thompson embodies that as much as anyone.
He is also critical to who these Pistons are and who they are becoming. They can’t fully get there until he is out there, offensive limitations and all, when the game gets heavy in the closing minutes.
Unless the other team is looking to intentionally foul, or if the Pistons are down by three and need a deep bucket to tie it in the waning seconds, Thompson gives them the best chance to win.
The numbers back it up.
Contact Shawn Windsor: swindsor@freepress.com. Follow him @shawnwindsor.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Second-guessing is easy, but Ausar Thompson needs to close for Pistons
Reporting by Shawn Windsor, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
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