The countdown is on. Hurricane season is officially a month away.
However, shifting ocean and atmosphere patterns — including the potential influence of El Niño — can sometimes affect how early storms form and where they track.
Forecasts for this year generally point to an average to below-average number of named storms, but those seasonal totals can be misleading. It only takes one storm making landfall in the wrong place at the wrong time to cause major damage, whether from wind, storm surge or inland flooding.
Early-season storms also aren’t unusual. The Atlantic has produced hurricanes before the official June 1 start date in past years, a reminder that tropical development doesn’t always follow the calendar.
With a month to go, now is the time to review plans, restock supplies and understand your risk — before the season officially begins and any potential threats start to take shape.
“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said earlier this year.
What’s the hurricane forecast for Texas?
Looking ahead to the 2026 hurricane season, the highest risk of direct impacts is expected along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas.
Texas faces a lower risk compared to those regions, but storms can still hit.
“If there’s an area with a below-average chance of significant impacts, it would be the central and southern Texas coast, basically everywhere south of Houston,” DaSilva said.
Similarly, Colorado State University experts gave a 48% chance of a named storm tracking within 50 miles, a 21% chance of a hurricane, and an 11% chance of a major hurricane.
When is the earliest a hurricane has hit Texas?
The earliest major tropical system to hit Texas in recent modern records is Tropical Storm Allison, which made landfall near Freeport on June 5, 2001, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It was not a hurricane, but it became one of the most destructive early-season storms in state history, stalling over Southeast Texas and dumping nearly 37 inches of rain in places. The storm caused catastrophic flooding in the Houston area, including severe damage to the Texas Medical Center, and resulted in about $4.8 billion in losses and 23 deaths.
When was the last hurricane in Texas?
Beryl made landfall near Matagorda, Texas, around 4 a.m. on July 8, 2024, as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds near 80 mph.
Beryl formed on June 28 in the central Atlantic, rapidly intensified into a major hurricane, and became the earliest Category 5 storm in Atlantic history. It made multiple landfalls in the Caribbean and the Yucatán before moving into the Gulf and turning toward Texas.
At Matagorda Bay, sustained hurricane-force winds and storm surge pushed inland. The storm brought heavy rain — more than 8 inches in the Houston area, with isolated totals of 15 to 17 inches — causing flooding and road closures. Widespread outages: More than 2.7 million households and businesses in Southeast Texas lost power for days, with extensive outages across the Houston metro.
Prepare now for hurricane season: What to include in an emergency kit
Basic supplies
Power and communication
Health and safety
Important documents
Clothing and personal items
Sanitation
Tools and backup supplies
Food prep and cooking
Special items
For your car
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com. Find her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Hurricane season begins in a month. Will Texas have an active season?
Reporting by Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORK / Corpus Christi Caller Times
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
