It’s not sweater weather, but the cold front headed this way will bring notable rains to a region that’s gripped in drought.
Meteorologists are calling for upwards of an inch of rain in the Fort Myers and Naples area this weekend as a cold front moves across the Sunshine State.
“Cold front” is a meteorological term that described low pressure systems that work their way from the mainland to Florida during the winter and spring months.
So, it’s not actually going to get cold this weekend. It will, however, bring a burst of cooler air.
“Down there, the best chances of rain will be late night Saturday and throughout the morning Sunday and tapering off Sunday afternoon,” said Tony Hurt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin, the office that covers the Fort Myers-Sanibel area.
Hurt said most areas will see around half an inch of rain on Sunday.
“Everybody’s probably going to get a little bit,” he said. “As far as how much, that’s still up for grabs. The most likely amounts look to be half inch, so maybe a range of a quarter of an inch to localized areas that get close to an inch, but that will be pretty spotty.”
Hurt said the front will cause temperatures to drop 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
The average high for a May 1 in Fort Myers is 88 degrees, according to NWS records that date back to 1902.
“Sunday’s high will probably reach the lower 80s, maybe 82, and it will be short-lived,” Hurt said of the slightly cooler weather. “By midweek we’ll be back close to 90 degrees for afternoon highs.”
SW FL gripped by drought for most of the past year
Hurt said all of Florida is in need or rain.
Here, in Southwest Florida, drought conditions have been in place all year, and a drought was declared for this area for the spring of 2025 as well.
“With the drought, any little bit helps,” Hurt said. “For Fort Myers for this year we’re 4 inches behind since January and we’re coming out of a drought from last year.”
Hurt said we may not see more rain until the rain season starts, which, historically, happens on May 15.
“It looks like our next chances of rain will be closer to the middle of May,” he said.
The record high for May 1 is 95 degrees (1991).
Tropical storms, hurricanes less likely to form during El Nino
The El Nino-La Nina cycle usually comes into play during hurricane season, which starts June 1.
Several hurricane forecasting outlets are calling for slightly below-normal activity this summer and fall as El Nino brings wind shear that collides with any forming storms.
“We’re approaching the El Nino criteria,” Hurt said. “It might take hold officially in July or August and it may end up starting May or June and typically the impacts are more likely in the fall to early spring, in the cool season.”
Chad Gillis is an environment reporter and can be reached by email at cgillis@news-press.com.
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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Last cold front of the season will hit this weekend, what to expect
Reporting by Chad Gillis, Fort Myers News-Press & Naples Daily News / Fort Myers News-Press
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