GREEN BAY − With an avalanche of NFL news about to hit with the start of free agency, there’s something to keep in mind regarding the Green Bay Packers: The compensatory draft-pick formula.
The NFL’s arcane system for awarding draft picks to the teams that lost the most in free agency probably will weight into Brian Gutekunst’s signing decisions this year more than ever.
That’s because Gutekunst is looking at an uncommonly good haul of compensatory picks in 2027 for the players he’s probably going to lose in the next couple of weeks.
This potential windfall is hardly a novel subject. Packers media of all stripes have raised the issue this offseason. Gutekunst, the team’s general manager, was even asked about it in his 40-minute session with local media at the NFL scouting combine on Feb. 24.
His answer, by the way, sounded interesting at first blush. But remember this is lying season in the NFL, and it’s not like he’s going to telegraph his plans to the rest of the league. And there’s almost always wiggle room in what GMs say.
“It’s about winning now,” Gutekunst said. “That’s the most important thing. If there’s players who we can sign that give us the opportunity to win now more so than holding out for a compensatory pick in 2027, that’s the decision we’re going to make.”
We’ll see on that. Either way, the workings of the compensatory formula are worth a closer look because of how it might affect Gutekunst’s approach to free agency .
The Packers always have placed a premium on compensatory picks, but this year Gutekunst really must consider it in his decisions, both for the high value of the picks he might receive, and the fact he doesn’t have a first-round pick in ’27. He needs all the draft capital he can get moving forward.
Consider this a primer on the compensatory formula, which is very much on the arcane side of the scale of NFL rules. We’ll try to explain it in the simplest, clearest way we can. Here goes:
How are NFL compensatory picks determined?
In the broadest sense, the formula determines each team’s compensatory picks based on net losses versus gains in free agency each year. The NFL allots 32 compensatory picks total every year, with the picks ranging anywhere from third round through the seventh. No team can get more than four picks in any draft.
The formula ranks players based on several factors: the value of the contract they signed in free agency, and playing time and awards the following season. There’s no need to detail the formula here, but if you’re really that interested, or are trying to cure insomnia, you can find the nitty gritty at overthecap.com.
Just know that a free agent’s average salary is by far the most important criteria in determining his value in the formula. We’ll use salaries, then, to show how free agents lost and gained can cancel each other out in the formula.
Going by last year’s signings, the cutoff between a free agent being worth a third-round pick and a fourth-rounder was in the low $20 million-a-year range, give or take. If it was above the cutoff, the pick was a third-rounder.
The cutoff from fourth- to fifth-rounder was in the $15 million range.
From fifth- to sixth-rounder, about $10 million.
Sixth- to seventh-rounder, about $5 million.
And seventh-rounder to nothing, about $3 million.
Now remember, these aren’t hard-and-fast contract lines. If a player ends up not playing much, his rating will drop. If he was anywhere near the borderline, it might move him a round lower than his salary would suggest. If he plays full time or ends up being voted All-Pro or wins some other awards, his rating will go up and maybe move him a round higher.
But those are the general contract parameters.
Who are the Packers’ free agents in 2026?
This offseason, the Packers have five free agents who probably will qualify for the comp formula: Malik Willis, Rasheed Walker, Romeo Doubs, Quay Walker and Kingsley Enagbare. You never know, maybe Trevon Diggs makes the list, too, though the guess here is he won’t.
Chances are Willis and Rasheed Walker will sign for more than $20 million and end up qualifying for third-round picks, though one or both could be near the fourth-round borderline. Reports suggest Doubs will come in around $16 million for a likely fourth-rounder. Quay Walker is tougher prediction, but the best guess is he’ll come in at a little under $10 million for a likely sixth-rounder.
If Enagbare signs elsewhere, the best guess is it will be in the $6 million range, which probably will fetch a seventh-rounder.
If it plays out this way, Packers will have five players who will count on their formula, though in the end they can receive at most only four picks.
Each free agent the Packers sign then removes one of their comp picks. The rules get a little more arcane, though, when a player signed doesn’t match the round of a player lost.
Let’s say the Packers lose those five players for the value of two third-rounders (Willis and Rasheed Walker), a fourth-rounder (Doubs), a sixth-rounder (Quay Walker) and a seventh-rounder (Enagbare).
If the Packers sign a third-round-level player, one of their third-rounders comes off their board. Same for a fourth-rounder, or sixth- or seventh-rounder.
But if the Packers signed a player with a fifth-round salary, they don’t have a fifth-rounder to offset. So then it goes to the next-lowest round. In this case, they’d lose the sixth-round pick they’d gotten for Quay Walker.
And once they run out of lower picks, they’d offset higher picks. So if they signed three players to fifth-round contracts, they’d first lose the sixth-rounder, then the seventh-rounder. After that, they’d have run out of lower picks to offset, so they’d move up to the fourth-rounder they’d received for Doubs.
So you can see how the comp picks might enter in Gutekunst’s signing strategy.
This also is a good time for an important reminder: The comp formula applies only to unrestricted free agents. That is, players whose contracts have expired.
Players cut don’t count on the formula. So if the Packers cut Elgton Jenkins, his signing with another team won’t help the Packers. And if the Packers sign a player cut by another team, it won’t cost them a comp pick.
What is the Packers’ situation entering free agency?
So what does all this mean for Gutekunst in free agency this year?
It means if he swings big in free agency for, say, a cornerback, he’ll lose a third-round or fourth-round compensatory pick. New Orleans’ Alantae Taylor, Seattle’s Riq Woolen and Kansas City’s Jaylen Watson are generally regarded as the top three cornerbacks available and probably will come in around the $18 million to $20 million range. That’s near the third- and fourth-round borderline.
Maybe Gutekunst will consider one of them worth losing the pick, along with the money, to upgrade the cornerback position. But with the compensatory picks in mind, he also might aim lower by signing someone such as Jacksonville’s Montaric Brown. Brown probably will come in around $10 million, which would offset Quay Walker (sixth-rounder) or Engabare (seventh).
It also means Gutekunst will be looking especially hard at players cut for salary-cap reasons. They don’t count on the formula so won’t offset any of the picks coming for Willis, Rasheed Walker, Doubs, Quay Walker and Enagbare.
At defensive tackle, for instance, Minnesota reportedly is going to release Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen before the start of free agency March 11 at a cap savings of about $17.5 million.
They aren’t the kind of players Gutekunst normally signs because of their advanced age (Hargrave is 33, Allen 31). But the Packers have a major immediate need on the interior of their defensive line and either might be a candidate as a one-year stopgap who wouldn’t cost Gutekunst a draft pick in ’27.
You never know what the Packers GM has planned for the open market this year. He’s had expensive free-agent classes, and not so expensive. He’s signed positions of acute need and, like last year, spent big money at a position (guard Aaron Banks) that wasn’t quite as high a priority.
Going into free agency this year, he’s got a good team, and he’s hitting the point in Jordan Love’s career that he’s been building for. Winning now has to be a priority.
But remember, too, Gutekunst needs draft picks in ’27, and if they’re third-rounders, that means they’re in or close to the top 100 picks. Gutekunst has said a pick in the top 100 means getting a player in the top 50 on his board.
So when the Packers sign a player in the coming days, take note: Did Gutekunst sacrifice a third- or fourth-round comp pick with a big-money contract? Did he aim lower and protect his higher comp picks? Or was it a recently cut player who won’t cost him a pick at all?
This article originally appeared on Packers News: How will NFL compensatory picks affect Packers in free agency | Pete Dougherty
Reporting by Pete Dougherty, Green Bay Press-Gazette / Packers News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
