The Texas Tech football team has already passed a couple of big tests on the road, and now the Red Raiders will be met with another one.
Arizona State, among the preseason favorites to win the Big 12 Conference title (again), has had an up-and-down 2025 season and coming off a humbling 42-10 loss at Utah, the same team Texas Tech beat 35-11 in the first conference game of the year.
All of that can generally be thrown out the window. Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils (4-2, 2-1) are still in position to challenge for a spot in the conference title game, and can spoil the good time Joey McGuire’s eighth-ranked Red Raiders (6-0, 3-0) are having right now.
How will the game unfold? Here’s a breakdown of the Red Raiders and Sun Devils.
Matchup to watch: Arizona State’s running game vs Texas Tech football’s run defense
Raleek Brown wasn’t expected to be the go-to running back for Arizona State before the season (that honor went to Army transfer Kanye Udoh) but Brown has been the bell cow, giving the Sun Devils some sense of balance on offense.
Brown is third in the Big 12 in rushing yards (behind BYU’s LJ Martin, a former Texas Tech commit, and the Red Raiders’ Cameron Dickey). He’s totaled 573 yards on 91 rushing attempts, good for an average of 6.3 yards per carry. Udoh is also used, though less frequently. He’s got 169 yards on 43 carries.
For Texas Tech to respect the pass (more on that later) the Sun Devils will have to get the run game going. ASU averages 204.3 yards per game on the ground.
That could be tough to achieve against the Red Raiders, who have the best run defense in the country. Opponents are averaging just 62.5 rushing yards per game. Utah and Houston both got to the 100-yard threshold against Tech, though barely. The Utes had 101 yards on 31 rushing attempts. Just last week Utah put up 276 rushing yards on the Sun Devils.
The Red Raiders have plenty of bodies to clog up rushing lanes, whether Skyler Gill-Howard is ready to go or not after suffering an ankle injury against Kansas. Houston transfer AJ Holmes Jr. got to have his breakout game in Gill-Howard’s absence. Playing alongside Lee Hunter makes things much easier. Plus, having sack demons David Bailey (nation-leading 8.5 sacks) and Romello Height (4.5) and linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts backing them up is a tall task for the Sun Devils to handle.
Players to watch: Texas Tech football’s Will Hammond and Arizona State’s Jeff Sims
Why, oh, why, are we talking about backup quarterbacks? Because there’s a good chance we could see both of them in this game.
Sam Leavitt missed Arizona State’s loss at Utah while Behren Morton left Texas Tech’s win over Kansas with another calf-area injury, reaggravating an injury suffered in the season opener. Morton has only made it through one complete game this year (two of them were blowouts) and Leavitt’s absence seemed to come out of nowhere after the Sun Devils returned from an open date.
The status of both QBs will be decided later in the week, and could go down to the opening kick. Even if they’re given the green light, it’s important to know who is backing them up and what they can bring to the table — just in case.
Texas Tech doesn’t have many concerns with Will Hammond. After a shaky start in the Kansas game, Hammond settled in and led three scoring drives in the second half, two of which found the redshirt freshman plowing his way through the KU defense for rushing touchdowns. He also led Tech in the second half against Utah to help the Red Raiders pull away with the win.
The Sun Devils had a much different experience with their backup. Jeff Sims is a well-traveled QB and got the start at Utah. It did not go well. Sims was sacked five times (Tech recorded eight against Jalon Daniels) and was 18 of 38 passing for 124 yards. He was used heavily in the rushing game, registering 21 carries (16 excluding the sacks) for 66 total yards (100 before the sack yardage).
BONUS: Does Arizona State have another offensive weapon to scare the Texas Tech football defense?
This is important enough to veer off from our regularly scheduled analysis. Whether Leavitt plays or not, the Sun Devils essentially have two offensive weapons: receiver Jordyn Tyson and running back Brown.
Tyson (47 catches, 523 yards) and Brown (21 catches, 124 yards) account for 58% of all of ASU’s pass completions. Chamon Metayer is the only player besides Tyson (seven) to catch a touchdown.
Put another way, Tyson has been targeted by ASU quarterbacks at least 10 times in five of the team’s six games. He accounts for 38% of all targets for Sun Devil offensive skill players. Tyson is among the best receivers in the country, so looking to get him the ball is logical, but there seems to be tunnel vision where he is the one option in the passing game.
Can Arizona State make Texas Tech respect other receivers?
Who has the edge in Texas Tech football vs Arizona State?
Texas Tech offense vs. Arizona State defense: Texas Tech
Arizona State offense vs. Texas Tech defense: Texas Tech
Specialists: Texas Tech
Score prediction for Texas Tech football vs Arizona State
Texas Tech 38, Arizona State 20: Even in their four wins, the Sun Devils haven’t been very impressive. Both of their Big 12 wins were by the skin of their teeth in identical 27-24 contests against teams whose defenses (Baylor and TCU) are not up to the Red Raiders’ level. If there’s a game for Texas Tech to slip up on the schedule, this is the one, but I don’t see it happening.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Texas Tech football visits Arizona State: Scouting report, prediction for Big 12 game
Reporting by Nathan Giese, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal / Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
