Frosty mornings should have already settled in across North Central Ohio.
Yet, most of Richland County still has not had a frost this autumn, according to Rick Garuckas, a meteorologist who works in the Cleveland office of the National Weather Service.
“I think we’re going to have to wait a while,” he said. “Temperatures for the month of October will probably finish the month above normal because we’ve had these surges of warmth.”
The coldest temperature recorded so far this season at Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport was 36 degrees the morning of Oct. 10.
“Eastern Ohio had a frost that night, but in Mansfield, if there was any, it was real spotty, like maybe rooftops and sheltered valleys,” Garuckas said. “Most of the area probably has not had a frost, but it was really close.”
When is the average first frost in Mansfield?
Frost normally reaches Richland County by Oct. 2, which is earlier than most areas in the northern half of the Buckeye State.
“That makes sense because the Mansfield elevation is a little higher atop the central highlands,” Garuckas said. “And it’s well inland, so the air is not going to be modified by the warmer Lake Erie water temperatures.”
The earliest frost ever recorded in Mansfield was Aug. 27, happening in 1946.
“The latest first frost that Mansfield ever had was Nov. 2, and that was just a couple years ago in 2021,” Garuckas said. “So there’s been huge ranges from late August to early November.”
The first freeze of the year normally hits the Mansfield area around Oct. 14.
“The earliest first freeze was Aug. 30 that same year back in 1946,” Garuckas said. “The latest first freeze was Nov. 20, 1985, so almost Thanksgiving.”
How can it frost above freezing?
Frost is typically expected when the air temperature falls to 34 degrees, which is two degrees above freezing.
“Even though the air temperature is a little above freezing, the surface of the object that the dew is collecting on might be a little bit colder,” Garuckas said.
That’s why blades of grass, windshields and even rooftops can be coated with a frozen layer of icy dew when the air temperature is still a couple degrees too warm to freeze.
“You don’t want it to be too far above freezing,” Garuckas said. “If it’s like 34 degrees, roughly the air temperature, the surface of those objects has a better chance of being at or below freezing.”
When are we going to get frost?
North Central Ohio has a slight chance of frost during the early morning hours Thursday and Friday, but the forecast shows Richland County likely will only get as cold as 35, which is too warm for widespread frost.
“I don’t think you’re going to see any frost with this upcoming cool spell,” Garuckas said. “I think it’s just going to be a little chilly in the morning, but you can’t rule out frost in the low-lying areas.”
Areas east, such as portions of Ashland and Wayne counties, could be cold enough to see frost this week.
“Valleys could get a few degrees colder and you could have some patchy frost on rooftops and cars,” Garuckas said. “But, for the most part, I don’t think you’re going to officially get a temperature at Mansfield Airport that would be appropriate to say that there was a frost.”
The next best chance that meteorologists can see for frost in North Central comes with a cold snap forecast for Oct. 22-23, but even those lows are only expected to drop to 37, which is still too warm for frost.
“Maybe after Halloween,” Garuckas said. “But, the uncertainty is really high at this point.”
ztuggle@gannett.com
419-564-3508
This article originally appeared on Mansfield News Journal: No frost yet in Richland County, and the cold sign of winter may not come until Halloween
Reporting by Zach Tuggle, Mansfield News Journal / Mansfield News Journal
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